Optimal cropping patterns and intertemporal groundwater usage under extraction constraints in Oklahoma’s panhandle

Authors: LAMBERT, LIXIA - Oklahoma State University; YAO, YIQING - University Of California, Davis; Levers, Lucia

Submitted to: Agricultural Water Management
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/5/2025
Publication Date: 4/19/2025
Citation: Lambert, L., Yao, Y., Levers, L.R. 2025. Optimal cropping patterns and intertemporal groundwater usage under extraction constraints in Oklahoma’s panhandle. Agricultural Water Management. 313/109472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109472.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109472

Interpretive Summary: The Ogallala Aquifer is an overpumped water resource in the Great Plains of the United States. Using an hydo-economic partial equilibrium model, we show that current agricultural groundwater use in this region will result in groundwater depletion in only a few years. However, this can be mitigated by switching to drought tolerant crops.

Technical Abstract: Coordinating the management of short and long-term water supply and demand in irrigated agriculture is essential for maintaining the economic stability of many arid and semi-arid regions. This is particularly true for the semi-arid Southern Great Plains of the United States, where surface water supply is limited compared to the extensive yet overly exploited groundwater resources of the Ogallala Aquifer. Producers in the region often face a reduced water table and well capacity, and tradeoffs between prolonged groundwater life and maximizing short-term profitability of irrigated agriculture. This research examines the optimal groundwater allocation to row crop production over time with varied water extraction amounts, discount rate, and energy prices. A dynamic hydro-economic partial equilibrium model is developed for Oklahoma’s Texas County, the state’s largest groundwater user. This model maximizes the Net Present Value (NPV) of the county subject to resource constraints over ten years. Results show that higher water extraction rates and the resulting drastic decreases in the water table increases production costs and the overall profitability. With lower water extraction amounts, dryland sorghum is a good replacement for irrigated corn. Higher energy costs didn’t seem to influence optimal cropping patterns and water consumption paths, however, results with different discount rates indicate that if producers put less weight on current costs and income, it could increase their returns on available irrigation water over time.