Understanding the role of climate skepticism in climate change adaptation: A case study of Western U.S. ranchers

Authors: HUNT, LAUREN - Boise State University; BURNHAM, MOREY - Idaho State University; Wilmer, Hailey; HILLIS, VICKEN - Boise State University

Submitted to: Weather, Climate, and Society
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/23/2026
Publication Date: 3/31/2026
Citation: Hunt, L., Burnham, M., Wilmer, H.N., Hillis, V. 2026. Understanding the role of climate skepticism in climate change adaptation: A case study of Western U.S. ranchers. Weather, Climate, and Society. 18(2):371-384. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-25-0132.1.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-25-0132.1

Interpretive Summary: Rangelands are an important ecosystem type that provide economic, cultural, and environmental benefits to society. Ranchers are important partners in rangeland management and science, and live with the impacts of climate change every day. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 23 ranchers in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon to examine how they perceive, experience, and adapt to climate change, and what opportunities and barriers exist for climate change adaptation. We found that ranchers observe and adapt to shifting local weather patterns but remain skeptical of anthropogenic climate change. Politicization and regulatory inflexibility may undermine adaptive capacity and pose barriers to climate engagement. Our findings suggest that including ranchers in climate change conversations and engaging their local knowledge, validating beliefs and identities, and tailoring climate-related messaging can increase engagement and contribute to improved climate programs and adaptation.

Technical Abstract: Rangelands cover over 50% of the land surface area in the western US, providing important economic, social, and environmental benefits. The resilience of western rangelands, however, is increasingly threatened by climate change and related impacts, including altered phenology and precipitation patterns, increased wildfire frequency and intensity, heightened pressure from invasive plants, and reduced winter snowpack. Despite these threats, many ranchers are skeptical about climate science. While much research suggests climate skepticism limits engagement in climate change action, other research has found that ranchers are engaging in climate adaptation regardless of climate beliefs. A critical examination of this discrepancy may clarify the extent to which climate skepticism matters for climate adaptation and may help cultivate more productive collaborations with agricultural communities to address climate change. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 23 ranchers in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon to examine how they perceive, experience, and adapt to climate change, and what opportunities and barriers exist for climate change adaptation. We found that ranchers observe and adapt to shifting local weather patterns but remain skeptical of anthropogenic climate change. Despite high levels of adaptive capacity to more localized and immediate risk, ranchers are less committed to proactive climate change adaptations. Ranchers believe politicization is driving claims about climate change, including the claim that the livestock industry is responsible for contributing climate change-causing greenhouse gas emissions. Politicization and regulatory inflexibility may undermine adaptive capacity and pose barriers to climate engagement. Our findings suggest that including producers in conversations about climate and engaging their local knowledge, validating beliefs and identities, and tailoring climate-related messaging can increase producers’ climate engagement and contribute to improved climate programs and services for agricultural communities.