Characterizing changes in cranberry phenology from 1958 to 2022: Implications for spring frost protection in Massachusetts, United States

Authors: BHATTI, SANDEEP - University Of Massachusetts, Amherst; JERANYAMA, PETER - University Of Massachusetts, Amherst; Kennedy, Casey; Buda, Anthony; GHANTOUS, KATHERINE - University Of Massachusetts, Amherst; Millar, David; DEMORANVILLE, CAROLYN - University Of Massachusetts, Amherst

Submitted to: International Journal of Biometeorology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/6/2024
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5278801/v1

Interpretive Summary: Climate change has impacted agricultural production globally. In Massachusetts, rising air temperatures have affected the phenology of cranberries. In this paper, we analyzed field observations of phenological stage of cranberries from 1958 to 2022. We find that rising air temperatures have caused bud development to occur ~20 d earlier now than in the 1950s, requiring new frost protection models that account for phenological variation in both time and space.

Technical Abstract: Warmer temperatures associated with climate change have affected the phenological development of most plants. In Massachusetts, rising air temperatures have shifted spring phenology earlier for many species. The objective of this research was to examine the long-term spatiotemporal trends in the development of cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.) buds during spring using detailed field observations of cranberry bud stages over a 65-yr period from 1958–2022. A growing degree day (GDD) model was used to inform observed trends in bud development over the study period. In an effort to assess the spatial variability in the occurrence of cabbage head growth stage of bud development, the GDD computations were used to estimate the occurrence of phenological stages for four contiguous cranberry producing counties of Massachusetts using gridded weather data. A Theil-Sen linear regression model was implemented to explore the trend in day of year to reach the cabbage head stage for each grid cell in the study area. We found significant (p-value < 0.01) temporal trends in the yearly timing of white bud and cabbage head stages using the observed data from the cranberry farm, which were occurring 18 to 20 days earlier in the spring by the end of study period. GDDs accumulated at a faster rate towards the end of the study period due to rising mean air temperature. The cabbage head stage varied by as much as 14 days across grid cells for the study area in 2022. The trend of advanced phenological development was also found to be significant for the four counties between 1958 and 2022 at 99% significance level. The slope of the regression computed from 65 years of data ranged from -0.15 to -0.25 d yr -1 among the different grid cells. Growers should be flexible and adjust the scheduling of farm operations according to field observations and forecasted weather, while being mindful of the earlier occurrence of bud development. Future research should focus on development of new frost forecasting models to account for changes in growth schedule of cranberry and improve prediction of bog temperature.