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ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center » Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #410834
Research Project: Adapting Agricultural Production Systems and Soil and Water Conservation Practices to Climate Change and Variability in Southern Great Plains

Location: Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit

Title: Potential physical mechanisms driving central great plains extreme precipitation increases during winter: preliminary results

Author
item Flanagan, Paul
item MAHMOOD, REZAUL - University Of Nebraska

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/6/2024
Publication Date: 3/28/2024
Citation: Flanagan, P.X., Mahmood, R. 2024. Potential physical mechanisms driving central great plains extreme precipitation increases during winter: preliminary results. Meeting Abstract. NOAA 48th Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: There are intra-region differences in the hydroclimatology of the Great Plains (GP) owing to and exemplified by the north to south increase in temperature and east to west decline in precipitation. Previous research has shown that the magnitude of winter extreme precipitation in the Central Great Plains (CGP) is increasing, both locally and regionally. This research seeks to understand physical mechanisms that influenced a region wide increase in extreme winter precipitation. To this end, stations and reanalysis datasets were analyzed to link changes in extreme precipitation to changes in the atmospheric state in winter (DJF). Station data analysis shows that there are increases in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Temperature data analysis shows that extreme precipitation increases are connected to increases in station level minimum temperature on the day of the event with an absence of maximum temperature change. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data-based findings support this understanding, with results showing a warm and moist environment prior to precipitation events. An analysis of NARR data split into two temporal periods shows small but impactful differences in the synoptic evolution of the atmospheric waves leading to the extreme precipitation event. These results demonstrate that extreme precipitation events identified within NARR data are becoming more severe in magnitude due to spatial shifts in the location of surface boundaries supportive of large rainfall totals. Overall, this work provides further explanation of prior research on south-central United States extreme rainfall. Mention of trade names or commercial products in this publication is solely for the purpose of providing specific information and does not imply recommendation or endorsement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.