PDOG MAPR: A decision support tool to inform management of prairie dog ecosystems

Authors: SERGEYEV, M - Colorado State University; BARRILE, G - University Of Wyoming; Augustine, David; Porensky, Lauren; DUCHARDT, C - Oklahoma State University; SHOEMAKER, K - University Of Nevada; HARTWAY, C - Colorado State University; DAVIDSON, A - Colorado State University

Submitted to: Rangeland Ecology and Management
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/30/2026
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: Grasslands that occur across the central portion of the United States are one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, having been transformed by agriculture, fencing, and loss of its biodiversity. Black-tailed prairie-dogs are a keystone species in these grasslands because they create habitat for other species, such as burrowing owls, and they are the prey base for many predators, such as badgers and hawks. Prairie dog populations often grow rapidly over a series of years, and then collapse due to disease outbreaks. These population changes have negative effects on biodiversity when populations are low, and can also increase competition with livestock when populations are at their peak. Management strategies are needed to reduce the magnitude of these population changes, to maintain more moderate populations consistently over time. Here, we introduce PDOG MAPR, an interactive, web-based decision support tool developed to inform management of the prairie dog-plague system. To illustrate the utility of our PDOG MAPR decision support tool for stakeholders, we present two case studies, one conducted in Thunder Basin National Grassland, WY, USA and the other in the Comanche National Grassland, CO, USA. We compared prairie dog populations under different management scenarios including varying degrees of disease prevention and lethal boundary control of colonies. Under no management, PDOG MAPR predicted that colonies would exhibit high growth rates and disease-induced collapses, mirroring the boom-bust cycles observed in nature (post-plague). Certain management simulations were successful in preventing both major population collapses and reducing colony growth rates. In this paper, we detail how our PDOG MAPR tool can be used to help stabilize prairie dog colonies, which can both improve biodiversity conservation and reduce competition with livestock, to improve human-wildlife coexistence in grasslands of the central United States.

Technical Abstract: Anthropogenic impacts are transforming ecosystems globally. North America’s Central Grasslands are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world, having been transformed by agriculture, fencing, and loss of its biodiversity. Black-tailed prairie-dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a keystone species of the Central Grasslands, creating key habitat for suites of associated species and serving as important prey for predators. Populations of prairie dogs exhibit boom and bust cycles, characterized by rapid large-scale collapse of prairie dog colonies due to introduced plague, followed by periods of growth and recovery from plague epizootics. These population cycles adversely affect biodiversity at their minimum and increase competition with livestock at their maximum. Management of this grassland system is challenged by its multi-use landscapes, complex jurisdictional boundaries, and diverse stakeholder interests. Objective, data-driven approaches are much needed to help inform management and conservation decisions. Here, we introduce PDOG MAPR, an interactive, web-based decision support tool developed to inform management of the prairie dog-plague system. To illustrate the utility of our PDOG MAPR decision support tool in helping stakeholders attain desired objectives, we present two case studies, one conducted in Thunder Basin National Grassland, WY, USA and the other in the Comanche National Grassland, CO, USA. We compared colony dynamics under different management scenarios including varying degrees of plague mitigation and lethal boundary control of colonies. Under no management, PDOG MAPR predicted that colonies would exhibit high growth rates and plague-induced collapses, mirroring the boom-bust cycles observed in nature (post-plague). The addition of management in simulations was successful in preventing major plague collapses and subduing colony growth during non-plague years. In this paper, we detail how our PDOG MAPR tool can be used to help stabilize prairie dog colonies and achieve diverse management goals. Identifying management practices that reduce volatility in prairie dog populations can support grassland health and associated biodiversity as well as reduce competition with livestock, facilitating human-wildlife coexistence across the Central Grasslands. Further, additional decision support can help stakeholders manage increasingly complex and destabilized ecosystems.