Spatiotemporal patterns of phenological growth stage in cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.) from 1958 to 2022: Implications for spring frost protection in southeastern Massachusetts, United States

Authors: BHATTI, SANDEEP - University Of Massachusetts; JERANYAMA, PETER - University Of Massachusetts; Kennedy, Casey; Buda, Anthony; GHANTOUS, KATHERINE - University Of Massachusetts; Millar, David; DEMORANVILLE, CAROLYN - University Of Massachusetts

Submitted to: International Journal of Biometeorology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/6/2025
Publication Date: 3/21/2025
Citation: Bhatti, S., Jeranyama, P., Kennedy, C.D., Buda, A.R., Ghantous, K., Millar, D.J., Demoranville, C. 2025. Spatiotemporal patterns of phenological growth stage in cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.) from 1958 to 2022: Implications for spring frost protection in southeastern Massachusetts, United States. International Journal of Biometeorology. 69:1297-1309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-025-02892-w.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-025-02892-w

Interpretive Summary: Climate change has impacted agricultural production globally. In Massachusetts, rising air temperatures have affected the phenology of cranberries. In this paper, we analyzed field observations of phenological stage of cranberries from 1958 to 2022. We find that rising air temperatures have caused bud development to occur ~20 d earlier now than in the 1950s, requiring new frost protection models that account for phenological variation in both time and space

Technical Abstract: Climate change has affected the phenological development for most vegetative species. The rising air temperature has accelerated crop growth for various species during spring including cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.) grown in Massachusetts. This study aims at determining long term temporal and regional trends in the development of cranberry buds during spring and explore a controlling environmental variable for the observed trends. The experimental data included field observations of cranberry bud stages from the period between 1958 and 2022. A growing degree day (GDD) model was implemented to explain trends observed in bud development over the study period. Linear regression model was used to identify and analyze trends from the acquired data. The linear model obtained for the white bud and cabbage head stages indicated that these stages were occurring earlier by about 18 to 21 days in the spring during the 65-year study period. These trends were found to be significant using the Mann Kendall test at 99% significance level. The GDDs were accumulated at a faster rate in the recent years for the study period due to rising mean air temperature. The GDD computations were also used to estimate the occurrence of bud stages for four cranberry producing counties of Massachusetts using gridded weather data. The cabbage head stage was estimated to occur with a spatial variability of 14 days for the study area in 2022. Linear regression model was implemented to explore the trend in day of year for each pixel in the study area. The trend of advanced bud development was also found significant for the region between 1958 and 2022 at 99% significance level. The slope of the regression computed from 65 years of data ranged from -0.15 to -0.25 among the different pixels. The growers should be flexible and adjust the scheduling of farm operations according to field observations and forecasted weather. Future research should focus on development of new frost forecasting models which account for changes in growth schedule of cranberry and improved prediction of bog temperature