Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Authors: HAMILTON, KERRY - Arizona State University; HARRISON, JOANNA - Arizona State University; MITCHELL, JADE - Michigan State University; WEIR, MARK - The Ohio State University; VERHOUGSTRAETE, MARK - University Of Arizona; HAAS, CHARLES - Drexel University; NEJADHASHEMI, POUYAN - Michigan State University; LIBARKIN, JULIE - Michigan State University; AW, TIONG - Tulane University; Williams, Clinton

Submitted to: Risk Analysis
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/28/2024
Publication Date: 5/21/2024
Citation: Hamilton, K., Harrison, J.C., Mitchell, J., Weir, M., Verhougstraete, M., Haas, C., Nejadhashemi, P.A., Libarkin, J., Aw, T.G., Williams, C.F., et al. 2024. Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Risk Analysis. 44(11):2521-2536. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14318.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14318

Interpretive Summary: Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a framework that uses data to inform mathematical models to better understand the potential danger posed by microbial agents via environmental exposures and to predict adverse outcomes. The workshop “Advances in Research for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)” was held to explore the current state of knowledge and identify knowledge gaps related to QMRA. The results of the workshop reported here were (1) identification of key research needs, (2) highlight emerging applications of QMRA; and (3) describe data needs and key scientific efforts to improve the science of QMRA. Key research priorities identified were: (1) Use of molecular tools in QMRA; (2) advancing dose-response methodology; (3) addressing needed exposure assessments; (4) harmonizing environmental monitoring for QMRA: (5) validating models; (6) modeling co-exposures and mixtures; and (7) standardizing practices for incorporating variability and uncertainty throughout a source-to-outcome continuum. Cross-cutting needs identified were to: (1) develop a community of research and practice, (2) integrate QMRA with other scientific approaches, (3) increase QMRA translation, and (4) encourage sustainable funding mechanisms. Ultimately, a vision for advancing the science of QMRA is outlined for informing national to global health assessments, controls, and policies.

Technical Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for more rapid and routine application of modeling approaches such as quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for protecting public health. QMRA is a transdisciplinary science dedicated to understanding, predicting, and mitigating infectious disease risks. To better equip QMRA researchers to inform policy and public health management, an Advances in Research for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) workshop was held to synthesize a path forward for QMRA research. We summarize insights from 41 QMRA researchers and experts to clarify the role of QMRA in risk analysis by (1) identifying key research needs, (2) highlight emerging applications of QMRA; and (3) describe data needs and key scientific efforts to improve the science of QMRA. Key identified research priorities included making use of molecular tools in QMRA, advancing dose-response methodology, addressing needed exposure assessments, harmonizing environmental monitoring for QMRA, validating models, modeling co-exposures and mixtures, and standardizing practices for incorporating variability and uncertainty throughout a source-to-outcome continuum. Cross-cutting needs identified were to: develop a community of research and practice, integrate QMRA with other scientific approaches, increase QMRA translation and impacts, build communication strategies, and encourage sustainable funding mechanisms. Ultimately, a vision for advancing the science of QMRA is outlined for informing national to global health assessments, controls, and policies.