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ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center » Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #405757
Research Project: Towards Resilient Agricultural Systems to Enhance Water Availability, Quality, and Other Ecosystem Services under Changing Climate and Land Use

Location: Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit

Title: Modeling the impacts of climate change and management practices on agricultural fields: Surface runoff and soil moisture content

Author
item LEE, SANGHYUN - Orise Fellow
item Moriasi, Daniel
item Fortuna, Ann-Marie
item MIRCHI, ALI - Oklahoma State University
item DANANDEH MEHR, ALI - Antalya Bilim University
item CHU, MARIA - University Of Illinois
item GUZMAN, JORGE - University Of Illinois
item Starks, Patrick

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/14/2023
Publication Date: 10/30/2023
Citation: Lee, S., Moriasi, D.N., Fortuna, A., Mirchi, A., Danandeh Mehr, A., Chu, M., Guzman, J., Starks, P.J. 2023. Modeling the impacts of climate change and management practices on agricultural fields: Surface runoff and soil moisture content. Abstract. ASA, CSSA, SSSA International Annual Conference, St. Louis, MO. Oct 29 - Nov 1, 2023

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: The Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network seeks to inform national strategies for sustainable intensification of agricultural production. LTAR monitoring sites provide data for applied research to improve or maintain productivity, and keep the environment clean under a changing climate. In this study, we will use a hydrologic model to determine the impacts of climate change on surface runoff and soil moisture under current and aspirational production systems within the Southern Plains area. We will use three downscaled ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) and historical climate data from four LTAR sites in different climate zones across the United States for a total of 7 climate scenarios to understand the roles of climate change and various climate conditions in agricultural fields. Three agricultural management systems will be evaluated: (1) continuous winter wheat under conventional tillage with moldboard plow (current system), (2) continuous winter wheat under no-till, and (3) cool and warm season forage cover crop mixes under no-till (aspirational systems, ASPs). Results will provide insights into potential impacts of changes in soil moisture and runoff production due to the effects of different combinations of climates and management practices. This modeling effort will help assess the resilience of production systems under future climate scenarios. The assessment of ASPs under a changing climate is expected to help producers to adapt their practices to minimize risk in production losses and environmental impacts. “USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.”