|BARKER, BRITTANY - Oregon State University|
|COOP, LEONARD - Oregon State University|
|PETRICE, TOBY - Us Forest Service (FS)|
Submitted to: Frontiers in Insect Science
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/31/2023
Publication Date: 8/29/2023
Citation: Barker, B.S., Coop, L., Duan, J.J., Petrice, T. 2023. An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer. Frontiers in Insect Science. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/finsc.2023.1239173/full.
Interpretive Summary: The emerald ash borer (EAB) is a serious invasive forest pest of ash trees in the United States and Canada. Effective management of EAB via biological control and insecticides needs a decision-support model that can accurately predict both when and where various EAB life stages (egg, larva, pupa and adult) occur. Here, we developed a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB that can serve as an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage this invasive beetle. The model accurately predicts the occurrence of major EAB life stages (adults and larvae) across North America and helps implementation of EAB control measures.
Technical Abstract: Decision support models that can predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which serves as an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats. The model was evaluated using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological observation dataset from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB’s phenology and potential distribution over 20 years. Overall, predictive accuracy of the model was high, with presence correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and a mean absolute error of ca. 7 days for predictions of adult activities. The predicted potential distribution of EAB based on climate data for 20 years overlapped with the ranges of all native Fraxinus spp. in North America and in Europe. The predicted date of first adult emergence declines significantly in areas excluded by cold stress in some northern areas over the 20-year period, whereas some areas of southwestern North America became increasingly unsuitable due to heat stress. Near real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for managing this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions.