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ARS Home » Pacific West Area » Maricopa, Arizona » U.S. Arid Land Agricultural Research Center » Water Management and Conservation Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #401240

Research Project: Improving Water Management for Arid Irrigated Agroecosystems

Location: Water Management and Conservation Research

Title: Predicted changes in future precipitation and air temperature across Bangladesh using CMIP6 GCMs

item KAMRUZZAMAN, MOHAMMAD - Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
item WAHID, SHAHRIAR - Csiro, Black Mountain Laboratories
item SHAHID, SHAMSUDDIN - University Technology Malaysia
item ALAM, E - University Of Chittagong, Bangladesh
item MAINUDDIN, MOHAMMED - Csiro, Black Mountain Laboratories
item ISLAM, H.M TOUHIDUL - Begum Rokeya University
item CHO, JEAPIL - International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
item RAHMAN, MIZANUR - Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
item BISWAS, JATISH CHNADRA - Krishi Gobeshona Foundation (KGF)
item Thorp, Kelly

Submitted to: Heliyon
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/11/2023
Publication Date: 5/13/2023
Citation: Kamruzzaman, M., Wahid, S., Shahid, S., Alam, E., Mainuddin, M., Islam, H., Cho, J., Rahman, M., Biswas, J., Thorp, K.R. 2023. Predicted changes in future precipitation and air temperature across Bangladesh using CMIP6 GCMs. Heliyon. 9(5). Article e16274.

Interpretive Summary: Global climate models are continuously updated to provide more accurate predictions of future climate conditions across the globe. Among the nations of the world, Bangladesh is a developing country that is considered vulnerable to climate change, particularly in terms of extreme weather events. This study evaluated future climate predictions across Bangladesh using data from recently updated global climate models. Spatial and temporal trends in predictions of future precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperatures were analyzed for different time periods, seasons, and socioeconomic pathways. Results of the study will be useful for intergovernmental agencies focusing on mitigation of climate change threats to food security.

Technical Abstract: Understanding spatiotemporal variability in precipitation and temperature and their future projections is critical for assessing environmental hazards and planning long-term mitigation. In this study, 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) were employed to project the mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation, maximum air temperature (Tmax), and minimum air temperature (Tmin) in Bangladesh. The GCM projections were bias-corrected using the Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) technique. Using the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) mean of the bias-corrected dataset, the expected changes for the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) were evaluated for the near (2015-2044), mid (2045-2074), and far (2075-2100) futures in comparison to the historical period (1985-2014). In the far future, the anticipated average annual precipitation increased by 9.48%, 13.63%, 21.07%, and 30.90%, while the average Tmax (Tmin) rose by 1.09 (1.17), 1.60 (1.91), 2.12 (2.80), and 2.99 (3.69) °C for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The post-monsoon season was predicted to experience the most significant increase in precipitation (41.6%) in the far future for SSP5-8.5. In contrast, winter precipitation was predicted to decrease most (15.0%) in the mid-future for SSP3-7.0. Tmax (Tmin) was predicted to rise most in the winter and least in the monsoon for all periods and scenarios. Tmin increased more rapidly than Tmax in all seasons for all SSPs.