Skip to main content
ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center » Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #397315
Research Project: Adapting Agricultural Production Systems and Soil and Water Conservation Practices to Climate Change and Variability in Southern Great Plains

Location: Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit

Title: Physical mechanisms driving central great plains extreme precipitation increases during winter

Author
item Flanagan, Paul
item MAHMOOD, REZAUL - University Of Nebraska

Submitted to: Proceedings of the American Meteorological Society Conference on Applied
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/2/2022
Publication Date: 1/10/2023
Citation: Flanagan, P.X., Mahmood, R. 2023. Physical mechanisms driving central great plains extreme precipitation increases during winter. Proceedings of the American Meteorological Society Conference on Applied. 103rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Jan 8-12, 2023, Denver, CO.

Interpretive Summary: Abstract only.

Technical Abstract: As the hydroclimate, owing to the north to south increase in mean temperature across the Great Plains (GP), is distinctly different increases in extreme precipitation across this region will have different impacts within the GP itself. Thus, it is crucial to understand extreme precipitation during each season and understand why distinct trends in extreme precipitation are being seen. Previous research has shown that the magnitude of winter extreme precipitation in the Central Great Plains (CGP) is increasing, both locally and regionally. This research seeks to understand why a region wide increase in extreme precipitation is being seen in this region, given the variety of impacts increases in water could have on the CGP. To this end, temperature and moisture data from both stations and reanalysis datasets were investigated to link changes in extreme precipitation to changes in the atmospheric state unique to the winter (DJF) season. Early results are showing that extreme precipitation increases are more likely to be connected to increases in station level minimum temperature change than maximum temperature or changes in precipitable water. Although this result changes when investigating the day prior to the precipitation extreme, as both temperature maximum and minimum appear linked to changes in extreme precipitation. Overall, the first portion of this work appears to be showing distinct results into the driving mechanisms of increases in winter extreme precipitation in the CGP. Further work will be conducted to identify surface and atmospheric drivers of the increases more robustly in extreme precipitation in the CGP, along with linking in teleconnection patterns and climate drivers that could be having an impact in the CGP region during the winter.