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ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center » Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #397312
Research Project: Adapting Agricultural Production Systems and Soil and Water Conservation Practices to Climate Change and Variability in Southern Great Plains

Location: Agroclimate and Hydraulics Research Unit

Title: Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation in the southern great plains hydroclimate region

Author
item Flanagan, Paul
item MAHMOOD, REZAUL - University Of Nebraska

Submitted to: Proceedings of the American Meteorological Society Conference on Applied
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/2/2022
Publication Date: 1/10/2023
Citation: Flanagan, P.X., Mahmood, R. 2023. Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation in the southern great plains hydroclimate region. Proceedings of the American Meteorological Society Conference on Applied. 103rd American MeteorologicaL Society Annual Meeting Jan 8-12, 2023, Denver, CO.

Interpretive Summary: Abstract only.

Technical Abstract: The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is defined by hydrometeorological swings between dry and wet extremes. These swings exacerbate the climatological gradients of moisture (east to west) and temperature (south to north), which can impact the agricultural production of the region. Thus, it is key to understand extremes to sustainably maintain agricultural success in the region. This study investigates the wet extremes, or extreme precipitation events (top 1% of precipitation events), that have become more prominent in the last two decades. Data from 108 United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations were analyzed for the 1950 – 2020 period to detect changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. Results showed that changes in the magnitude and frequency have been occurring across the SGP. Magnitude changes in the eastern portion of the SGP were evident, especially in the central corridor, where the low-level jet is a key driver of moisture return. In the western SGP, trends in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation are not as strong as the eastern SGP, and in some analyses completely absent. Still, changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation events were detected across the entire SGP. However, analysis shows that this is driven more by the increasing spatial impact of individual extreme precipitation events rather than an increased number of events. Overall, these results depict the changing nature of extreme precipitation within the SGP and differences in extreme precipitation between the eastern and western SGP.