Modeling the distribution of wild cotton Gossypium aridum in Mexico using flowering growing degree days and annual available soil water

Authors: BAEZ-GONZALEZ, ALMA - Instituto Nacional De Investigaciones Forestales Y Agropecuarias (INIFAP); MELGOZA-CASTILLO, ALICIA - Instituto Nacional De Investigaciones Forestales Y Agropecuarias (INIFAP); ROYO-MARQUEZ, MARIO - Instituto Nacional De Investigaciones Forestales Y Agropecuarias (INIFAP); Kiniry, James; MEKI, MANYOWA - Texas A&M Agrilife

Submitted to: Sustainability
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/13/2022
Publication Date: 5/24/2022
Citation: Baez-Gonzalez, A.D., Melgoza-Castillo, A., Royo-Marquez, M.H., Kiniry, J.R., Meki, M.N. 2022. Modeling the distribution of wild cotton Gossypium aridum in Mexico using flowering growing degree days and annual available soil water. Sustainability. 14(11). Article 6383. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116383.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116383

Interpretive Summary: The distribution of some wild species can be vulnerable to climate change. A wild cotton species has decreased its distribution in Mexico. However, the extent of this change has not been determined. In this study we developed a distribution model of this cotton in Mexico and identified areas with environmental conditions similar to where the species currently exists. We also determined which variable, flowering growing degree days (or annual available soil water, has greater influence on its distribution. We developed a model to characterize sites using geographic information system (GIS) software. Degree day values of 330–860 and annual rainfall of 4–110 mm per year best described the species habitat. The model identified regions in Mexico with similar conditions as the locations where the species has been observed, including some where no collections have been registered. This information can guide collection expeditions for this cotton and be used to evaluate climatic impacts on the species distribution. The approach using degree days and annual available soil water can be used to model this wild cotton species that is a valuable natural resources for crop improvement.

Technical Abstract: Climate change is expected to alter species distribution and habitat composition, with wild species being particularly vulnerable. Gossypium aridum, a wild cotton species in Mexico, has shown a decrease in habitat extent and population; however, the data isare not precise. The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop a distribution model of G. aridum in Mexico, (2) to identify areas with environmental conditions similar to where the species currently maintains populations, and (3) to determine which variable, flowering growing degree days (FGDD) or annual available soil water (AASW, mm year-1), has greater influence on the distribution of the species. Geographic information system (GIS) software was used with datasets from two databases in Mexico that were partitioned for site characterization, model construction, calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis. The range of 330–860 FGDD and 4–110 mm year_1 AASW best described the species habitat, according to results of seven precision and accuracy statistical tests. The model identified geographic regions throughout the country with similar conditions as the locations where the species has been observed, including some where no collections have not yet been registered in Mexican databases. FGDD, rather than AASW, showed greater influence on the distribution of the species. The generated information can be used to guide collection expeditions for G. aridum and to study climatic impact on species distribution. The approach using FGDD and AASW can be used in the modeling of wild cotton species that are valuable natural resources for crop improvement.