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ARS Home » Midwest Area » Columbia, Missouri » Cropping Systems and Water Quality Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #389775

Research Project: Long-term Management of Water Resources in the Central Mississippi River Basin

Location: Cropping Systems and Water Quality Research

Title: Quantifying the effects of climate on the water balance in the Central Mississippi River Basin: ten years of study.

Author
item COSTELLO, CHRISTINE - Pennsylvania State University
item Baffaut, Claire
item GAUTAM, SAGAR - Sandia National Laboratory
item PHUNG, QUANG - University Of Missouri
item THOMPSON, ALLEN - University Of Missouri
item SADLER, E. JOHN - Retired ARS Employee

Submitted to: American Geophysical Union Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/25/2021
Publication Date: 12/13/2021
Citation: Costello, C., Baffaut, C., Gautam, S., Phung, Q., Thompson, A., Sadler, E. 2021. Quantifying the effects of climate on the water balance in the Central Mississippi River Basin: ten years of study [abstract]. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 13-17, 2021, New Orleans, LA and online. Available: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/910010

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Climate change analyses at the Central Mississippi River Basin site of the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research network started in 2012 with the objective of understanding the current and anticipated climate trends and their impacts on agriculture and water management. They have included independent analyses of current and expected climatic and hydrologic trends but lack an overall integration of the results. This presentation synthesizes the results from these studies, which used varying downscaling approaches, global climate change models, and emission scenarios. The objective is to extract the most consistent and meaningful conclusions and identify promising strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change. Historical data showed increasing peak daily flows and number of zero flow days. All studies predicted a rise in projected temperature, for all seasons, for the near and far future. In contrast, early (CMIP 3) scenarios did not foresee any near future change in precipitation but later (CMIP5) medium and high emission scenarios predicted increased precipitation for both the near and far future, consistently over the spring months (March through June). Simulation of the combined effects of increasing temperature and precipitation showed more runoff and increased drought frequency and severity. Field scale adaptation measures included modifying rotations to include crops that could accommodate both dry and wet conditions. Watershed scale measures included enhancing water storage infrastructure, modifying the allowed uses for stored water, and converting some cropland to forest or grassland. Water resources managers can use these results to guide climate change adaptation in this region.