Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States

Authors: ILLAN, JAVIER - Washington State University; WALGENBACH, JAMES - North Carolina State University; ACEBES-DORIA, ANGEL - University Of Georgia; AGNELLO, ARTHUR - Cornell University; ALSTON, DIANE - Utah State University; ANDREWS, HEATHER - Oregon State University; BERGH, J. CHRISTOPHER - Virginia Tech; BESSIN, RICARDO - University Of Kentucky; BLAAUW, BRETT - University Of Georgia; BUNTIN, G. DAVID - University Of Georgia; BURKNESS, ERIK - University Of Minnesota; Cullum, John; DAANE, KENT - University Of California; FANN, LAUREN - Virginia Tech; FISHER, JOANNA - University Of California, Davis; GIROD, PIERRE - Rutgers University; GUT, LARRY - Michigan State University; HAMILTON, GEORGE - Rutgers University; HILTON, RICHARD - Oregon State University; Hoelmer, Kim; HUTCHISON, WILLIAM - University Of Minnesota; JENTSCH, PETER - Cornell University; JOSEPH, SHIMAT - University Of Georgia; KENNEDY, GEORGE - North Carolina State University; KRAWCZYK, GRZEGORZ - Pennsylvania State University; KUHAR, THOMAS - Virginia Tech; Leskey, Tracy; NIELSEN, ANNE - Rutgers University; PATEL, DILANI - University Of Georgia; PETERSON, HILLARY - Pennsylvania State University; REISIG, DOMINIC - North Carolina State University; RIJAL, JHALENDRA - University Of California; SIAL, ASHFAQ - University Of Georgia; SPEARS, LORI - Utah State University; STAHL, JUDITH - University Of California; Tatman, Kathleen; TAYLOR, SALLY - Virginia Tech; Tillman, Patricia - Glynn; TOEWS, MICHAEL - University Of Georgia; VILLANUEVA, RAUL - University Of Kentucky; WELTY, CELESTE - The Ohio State University; WIMAN, NIK - Oregon State University; WILSON, JULIANNA - Michigan State University; ZALOM, FRANK - University Of California, Davis; ZHU, GENGPING - Washington State University; CROWDER, DAVID - Washington State University

Submitted to: Pest Management Science
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 8/3/2022
Publication Date: 8/23/2022
Citation: Illan, J.G., Walgenbach, J.F., Acebes-Doria, A., Agnello, A.M., Alston, D.G., Andrews, H., Bergh, J., Bessin, R.T., Blaauw, B.R., Buntin, G., Burkness, E.C., Cullum, J.P., Daane, K.M., Fann, L.E., Fisher, J., Girod, P., Gut, L.J., Hamilton, G.C., Hilton, R., Hoelmer, K.A., Hutchison, W.D., Jentsch, P.J., Joseph, S.V., Kennedy, G.G., Krawczyk, G., Kuhar, T.P., Leskey, T.C., Nielsen, A.L., Patel, D.K., Peterson, H.D., Reisig, D.D., Rijal, J.P., Sial, A.A., Spears, L.R., Stahl, J.M., Tatman, K.M., Taylor, S.V., Tillman, P.G., Toews, M.D., Villanueva, R.T., Welty, C., Wiman, N.G., Wilson, J.K., Zalom, F.G., Zhu, G., Crowder, D.W. 2022. Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States. Pest Management Science. https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.7113.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.7113

Interpretive Summary: Brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is a serious agricultural pest that has spread throughout the USA. Here, data generated by pheromone-baited traps were used in ecological models to better establish where BMSB could become established currently and under future climactic conditions. Areas that were found to be most suitable included areas with highly productive croplands in the eastern USA and west coast valleys, with potential suitable areas increasing under some climate scenarios.

Technical Abstract: Invasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over three years to assess factors mediating occurrence and abundance of the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout the USA. We used maximum entropy models to predict the invasive range of BMSB under several climate scenarios and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different than those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was mediated most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod. Our results suggest linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) as an effective means to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species, and allows for targeted mitigation efforts.