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ARS Home » Northeast Area » Kearneysville, West Virginia » Appalachian Fruit Research Laboratory » Innovative Fruit Production, Improvement, and Protection » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #382761

Research Project: Integrated Production and Automation Systems for Temperate Fruit Crops

Location: Innovative Fruit Production, Improvement, and Protection

Title: Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States

item ILLAN, JAVIER - Washington State University
item WALGENBACH, JAMES - North Carolina State University
item ACEBES-DORIA, ANGEL - University Of Georgia
item AGNELLO, ARTHUR - Cornell University - New York
item ALSTON, DIANE - Utah State University
item ANDREWS, HEATHER - Oregon State University
item BERGH, J. CHRISTOPHER - Virginia Tech
item BESSIN, RICARDO - University Of Kentucky
item BLAAUW, BRETT - University Of Georgia
item BUNTIN, G. DAVID - University Of Georgia
item BURKNESS, ERIK - University Of Minnesota
item Cullum, John
item DAANE, KENT - University Of California
item FANN, LAUREN - Virginia Tech
item FISHER, JOANNA - University Of California, Davis
item GIROD, PIERRE - Rutgers University
item GUT, LARRY - Michigan State University
item HAMILTON, GEORGE - Rutgers University
item HILTON, RICHARD - Oregon State University
item Hoelmer, Kim
item HUTCHISON, WILLIAM - University Of Minnesota
item JENTSCH, PETER - Cornell University - New York
item JOSEPH, SHIMAT - University Of Georgia
item KENNEDY, GEORGE - North Carolina State University
item KRAWCZYK, GRZEGORZ - Pennsylvania State University
item KUHAR, THOMAS - Virginia Tech
item Leskey, Tracy
item NIELSEN, ANNE - Rutgers University
item PATEL, DILANI - University Of Georgia
item PETERSON, HILLARY - Pennsylvania State University
item REISIG, DOMINIC - North Carolina State University
item RIJAL, JHALENDRA - University Of California
item SIAL, ASHFAQ - University Of Georgia
item SPEARS, LORI - Utah State University
item STAHL, JUDITH - University Of California
item Tatman, Kathleen
item TAYLOR, SALLY - Virginia Tech
item Tillman, Patricia - Glynn
item TOEWS, MICHAEL - University Of Georgia
item VILLANUEVA, RAUL - University Of Kentucky
item WELTY, CELESTE - The Ohio State University
item WIMAN, NIK - Oregon State University
item WILSON, JULIANNA - Michigan State University
item ZALOM, FRANK - University Of California, Davis
item ZHU, GENGPING - Washington State University
item CROWDER, DAVID - Washington State University

Submitted to: Pest Management Science
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 8/3/2022
Publication Date: 8/23/2022
Citation: Illan, J.G., Walgenbach, J.F., Acebes-Doria, A., Agnello, A.M., Alston, D.G., Andrews, H., Bergh, J., Bessin, R.T., Blaauw, B.R., Buntin, G., Burkness, E.C., Cullum, J.P., Daane, K.M., Fann, L.E., Fisher, J., Girod, P., Gut, L.J., Hamilton, G.C., Hilton, R., Hoelmer, K.A., Hutchison, W.D., Jentsch, P.J., Joseph, S.V., Kennedy, G.G., Krawczyk, G., Kuhar, T.P., Leskey, T.C., Nielsen, A.L., Patel, D.K., Peterson, H.D., Reisig, D.D., Rijal, J.P., Sial, A.A., Spears, L.R., Stahl, J.M., Tatman, K.M., Taylor, S.V., Tillman, P.G., Toews, M.D., Villanueva, R.T., Welty, C., Wiman, N.G., Wilson, J.K., Zalom, F.G., Zhu, G., Crowder, D.W. 2022. Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States. Pest Management Science.

Interpretive Summary: Brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is a serious agricultural pest that has spread throughout the USA. Here, data generated by pheromone-baited traps were used in ecological models to better establish where BMSB could become established currently and under future climactic conditions. Areas that were found to be most suitable included areas with highly productive croplands in the eastern USA and west coast valleys, with potential suitable areas increasing under some climate scenarios.

Technical Abstract: Invasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over three years to assess factors mediating occurrence and abundance of the brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout the USA. We used maximum entropy models to predict the invasive range of BMSB under several climate scenarios and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different than those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was mediated most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod. Our results suggest linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) as an effective means to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species, and allows for targeted mitigation efforts.