Skip to main content
ARS Home » Northeast Area » Beltsville, Maryland (BARC) » Beltsville Agricultural Research Center » Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #373487
Research Project: Integrating Remote Sensing, Measurements and Modeling for Multi-Scale Assessment of Water Availability, Use, and Quality in Agroecosystems

Location: Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory

Title: Sustainable use of groundwater may dramatically reduce irrigated production of maize, soybean, and wheat

Author
item LOPEZ, J.R. - Dartmouth College
item WINTER, J.M. - University Of Chicago
item ELLIOTT, J. - University Of Chicago
item RUANE, A. - Nasa Goddard Institute For Space Studies
item PORTER, C. - University Of Florida
item HOOGENBOOM, G. - University Of Florida
item Anderson, Martha
item HAIN, C. - Nasa Marshall Space Flight Center

Submitted to: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/13/2021
Publication Date: 1/10/2022
Citation: Lopez, J., Winter, J., Elliott, J., Ruane, A., Porter, C., Hoogenboom, G., Anderson, M.C., Hain, C. 2022. Sustainable use of groundwater dramatically reduces maize, soybean, and wheat production. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). 10(1):e2021EF002018. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002018.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002018

Interpretive Summary: In water-limited environments, there can be a trade-off between agricultural water use and production. This paper explores the impact to production of maize, soybean and winter wheat in the United States under sustainable groundwater extraction strategies. Here, sustainable water use is defined in terms of estimates of safe aquifer yield, typically set below the expected recharge rate with a margin of safety to account for variability in future precipitation and drought. A process-based crop model was run over major production areas in the U.S. assuming varying rates of irrigation, constrained by different safety margins on safe aquifer yield, and the impact on crop yields was assessed. Assuming an optimistic margin, the simulations estimated that U.S. irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat would be reduced by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively, while a more conservative margin decreased production by 45%, 37%, and 36%. These results highlight the challenges involved in expanding food production in the face of current water limitations and future precipitation variability.

Technical Abstract: The current rate of groundwater extraction in the United States is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on food production. Here, we integrate a gridded crop model with satellite observations and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on U.S. agricultural production. Using the most optimistic assumptions for groundwater extraction, we find that sustainable groundwater use will decrease US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using more conservative assumptions of groundwater availability, U.S. irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat will decrease by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of U.S. agricultural production to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands.