Location: Meat Safety & Quality ResearchTitle: Longitudinal quantification of foodborne illnesses with antimicrobial resistant pathogens attributable to beef
|COSTARD, SOLENNE - Epix Analytics|
|POUZOU, JANE - Epix Analytics|
|BELK, K - Colorado State University|
|MORLEY, P - Texas A&M University|
|ZAGMUTT, FRANCISCO - Epix Analytics|
Submitted to: Lancet Infectious Diseases
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/5/2020
Publication Date: N/A
Interpretive Summary: Antibiotic use during food-animal production is theorized to contribute significantly to antibiotic resistant human infections. However, few risk assessments have studied the contributions of U.S. beef production. In this study, nine years of nationally representative data was used to assess the relationships between antibiotic uses in beef production, antibiotic resistant Salmonella in beef, and antibiotic resistant Salmonella from human infections. This relationship data was used to estimate the change in human infections complicated by antibiotic resistant Salmonella attributed to beef if less or no antibiotics were used during U.S. beef production. These analyses indicate that reducing antibiotic use during U.S. beef production is unlikely to reduce the occurrence of in human infections complicated by antibiotic resistant Salmonella attributed to beef.
Technical Abstract: Background: The reduction of antimicrobial drug use (AMU) in food production animals (FPA) is promoted as a target for reduction of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) infections in humans, despite little quantitative understanding of any relationship between the two. Methods: We combined US surveillance data to estimate the probability of human AMR (resistant to one or more antimicrobials) non-typhoidal Salmonella (NTS) infection per any beef meal (Pmeal) and per meal made with beef initially contaminated with AMR NTS (Pill), and their yearly trends (2002-2010). We used the relationship between AMR NTS prevalence in beef vs human illness cases, and data on Salmonella in raised-without-antibiotic (RWA) cattle, to test a hypothetical scenario of change in resistant salmonellosis cases if all cattle were RWA. Findings: Pill has remained low – a mean of 1·2/million meals (95% CI 0·6, 4·2) - and without trend (p =0·25) or change, except in 2003 and 2009 where larger/more outbreaks occurred (>98% confidence). The mean of Pmeal was 0·031/million meals (0·00018, 0·14), p of trend =0·6. No significant changes in AMR NTS infections (94·3% confidence) were found under a hypothetical scenario with 100% RWA beef production for 2002-2010. Interpretation: The likelihood of AMR NTS infection per beef meal is quantifiable, small, and without directional trend. Raising cattle entirely without antibiotics may or not have a measurable impact on the incidence of these illnesses.