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ARS Home » Plains Area » El Reno, Oklahoma » Grazinglands Research Laboratory » Agroclimate and Natural Resources Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #355959

Research Project: Uncertainty of Future Water Availability Due to Climate Change and Impacts on the Long Term Sustainability and Resilience of Agricultural Lands in the Southern Great Plains

Location: Agroclimate and Natural Resources Research

Title: Assessing the impacts of a changing climate in the Southern Great Plains

item Mullens, Esther - University Of Florida
item Bartush, Bill - Us Fish And Wildlife Service
item Kloesel, Kevin - Oklahoma Climate Survey
item Banner, Jay - University Of Texas At Austin
item Brown, David
item Lemery, Jay - University Of Colorado
item Lin, Xiaomao - Kansas State University
item Loeffler, Cindy - Texas Parks And Wildlife
item Mcmanus, Gary - Oklahoma Climate Survey
item Nielsen-gammon, John - Texas A&M University
item Shafer, Mark - University Of Oklahoma
item Sorensen, Cecilia - University Of Colorado
item Sperry, Sid - Oklahoma Association Of Electric Cooperatives
item Wildcat, Daniel - Haskell Indian Nations University
item Ziolkowska, Jadwiga - University Of Oklahoma

Submitted to: American Geophysical Union
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/1/2018
Publication Date: 12/10/2018
Citation: Mullens, E., Bartush, B., Kloesel, K., Banner, J., Brown, D.P., Lemery, J., Lin, X., Loeffler, C., Mcmanus, G., Nielsen-Gammon, J.W., Shafer, M., Sorensen, C., Sperry, S., Wildcat, D., Ziolkowska, J. 2018. Assessing the impacts of a changing climate in the Southern Great Plains [abstract]. American Geophysical Union. Available at:

Interpretive Summary: Abstract only

Technical Abstract: The Southern Great Plains (SGP) experiences weather that is dramatic and consequential, from hurricanes and floods to heat waves and drought. A changing climate exacerbates these extremes, further stressing infrastructure and seriously impacting the socioeconomic systems of its rapidly growing and diverse 34-million population, as well as the natural environment (e.g., ecology, coastal systems). This poster will outline some of the key climate-related stressors for the SGP, discussing the process of developing the SGP chapter and its key messages/focus areas for the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). NCA4 fulfills a congressional mandate to provide comprehensive information on climate change impacts, adaptation, and resiliency, and is the preeminent source for climate change information within the United States. The SGP chapter is new for NCA4, providing more relevant regional context and detail to the region’s public and decision-makers than NCA3 (2014), the former of which amalgamated climate projections and impacts for the northern and southern Great Plains. Furthermore, the chapter incorporates some new ways of evaluating risk, such as risk-based framing, or in providing some more relevant context, by including potential economic impacts. Case studies of successful adaptations to current climate-related stressors are also incorporated to highlight effective strategies for mitigation. A team of regional experts consisting of climatologists, researchers, and federal scientists, spanning multiple sectors (agriculture, economy, climate science, tribal professional, infrastructure, health and water resources among others) were selected to develop this chapter. The team solicited expert input from regional stakeholders, and the final chapter underwent multiple rounds of public and governmental review. Each stage of the process and some key outcomes will be described.