Pest risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the European Union

Authors: JEGER, MICHAEL - European Food Safety Authority; BRAGARD, CLAUDE - European Food Safety Authority; CAFFIER, DAVID - European Food Safety Authority; CANDRESSEE, THIERRY - European Food Safety Authority; CHATZIVASSILIOU, ELISAVET - European Food Safety Authority; DEHNEN-SCHMUTZ, KATHARINA - European Food Safety Authority; GILIOLI, GIANNI - European Food Safety Authority; GREGIORE, JEAN-CLAUDE - European Food Safety Authority; ANTON, JOSEPH - European Food Safety Authority; MIRET, JAQUES - European Food Safety Authority; NAVARRO, MARIA NAVAJAS - European Food Safety Authority; NIERE, BJORN - European Food Safety Authority; PARNELL, STEPHEN - European Food Safety Authority; POTTING, ROEL - European Food Safety Authority; RAFOSS, TROND - European Food Safety Authority; ROSSI, VITTORIO - European Food Safety Authority; UREK, GREGOR - European Food Safety Authority; VAN BRUGGEN, ARIENA - European Food Safety Authority; VAN DER WERF, WOPKE - European Food Safety Authority; WEST, JONATHAN - European Food Safety Authority; WINTER, STEPHEN - European Food Safety Authority; DAY, ROGER - European Food Safety Authority; EARLY, REGAN - European Food Safety Authority; HRUSKA, ALLAN - European Food Safety Authority; Nagoshi, Rodney; GARDI, CIRO - European Food Safety Authority; MUSBACH-SCHULTZ, OLAF - European Food Safety Authority; MACLEOD, ALAN - European Food Safety Authority

Submitted to: European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Journal
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/21/2018
Publication Date: 8/31/2018
Citation: Jeger, Michael, Bragard, C., Caffier, D., Candressee, T., Chatzivassiliou, E., Dehnen-Schmutz, K., Gilioli, G., Gregiore, J., Anton, J., Miret, J., Navarro, M., Niere, B., Parnell, S., Potting, R., Rafoss, T., Rossi, V., Urek, G., Van Bruggen, A., Van Der Werf, W., West, J., Winter, S., Day, R., Early, R., Hruska, A., Nagoshi, R.N., Gardi, C., Musbach-Schultz, O., Macleod, A. 2018. Pest risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the European Union. European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) Journal. 16(8):5351,120pp. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5351.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5351

Interpretive Summary: The Fall Armyworm (FAW) is a major pest of corn and grass in North America and is now an invasive species in Africa threatening corn production throughout the sub-Saharan regions. The European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) requested a partial risk assessment determination for the FAW invading EU territories. An international panel of experts including a scientist from USDA-ARS, Center for Medical, Agricultural and Veterinary Entomology, Gainesville Florida, was convened focusing on the main pathways for entry, factors affecting establishment, risk reduction options and pest management. Five commodity pathways were examined in detail and it was estimated that tens of thousands to over a million individual immature pests could enter the EU annually with trade. Small areas of Spain, Italy and Greece provide suitable establishment conditions. Although the FAW is a strong migrant, entry directly into the EU from sub-Saharan Africa is judged not feasible. However, if FAW becomes established in North Africa, in the range of thousands to over two million adults could seasonally migrate into southern EU, where conditions for establishment occur. The likelihood of entry of the FAW pest via natural dispersal could only be mitigated via control of FAW in Africa. In the eventuality that FAW were to arrive and become a pest of maize in the EU, broad spectrum insecticides currently used against existing pests could be used to control it.

Technical Abstract: Following a request from the European Commission (EC), the EFSA Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the territory of the EU. S. frugiperda is an economically important lepidopteran pest in the Americas and is now reported as a major pest of Zea mays and Sorghum and as damaging many other crops in sub-Saharan Africa (Cock et al. 2017; Abrahams et al., 2018). This risk assessment focused on the main pathways for entry, factors affecting establishment, risk reduction options and pest management. Entry via trade in five plant commodities was assessed using pathway modelling in @Risk for Microsoft Excel. The five commodities were selected based on the importance of the host (Zea mays, sweetcorn) and the history of interceptions associated with the trade: eggplants (Solanum melongena), peppers (Capsicum spp. and Pimenta spp), asparagus and rose cut flowers (Rosa sp). The risk assessment considered two scenarios. The first scenario (A0) is a baseline scenario representing the regulatory conditions applied to each of the studied pathways when this assessment was initiated in January 2018. The second scenario (A1) is an imagined future situation where the pathways are all specifically regulated with respect to S. frugiperda. Although not a favoured host, outputs from the Scenario A0 pathway model indicate that peppers are by far the most likely pathway for entry of S. frugipera amongst the five pathways quantified As a seasonal migrant, entry from Africa through migration was assessed. The closest S. frugiperda populations to the EU are approximately 3,000km distant, with the Sahara Desert and Mediterranean Sea posing very significant ecological barriers. There is no evidence that S. frugiperda can traverse this distance in a single continuous flight without extraordinarily favourable wind conditions at the appropriate altitude, nor is there a plausible pathway for sequential nocturnal flights across the Sahara. Given the current state of knowledge, entry of S. frugiperda directly into the EU from populations in sub-Saharan Africa is therefore judged not feasible and was not quantified. However, there are multiple examples of Lepidoptera species that migrate from North Africa to Europe on a seasonal basis. Establishment of permanent populations in North Africa in maize and sorghum growing areas would place S. frugiperda within a single night flight of the EU, with regional wind patterns conferring a high probability of periodic migration into Europe. Informed by the HYSPLIT trajectory model (Stein et al. 2015) we estimate that from a few hundred individuals to around two million adults could migrate into the southern EU annually (90% probability interval), particularly into Andalucia and Sicily. Spatially combining the results of entry and establishment allows comparisons to be made between entry of S. frugiperda via trade and natural migration from North Africa. If S. frugiperda were to establish in North Africa, the likelihood that substantial numbers of S. frugiperda migrate and find conditions suitable in the EU is much greater than via commercial trade. The most promising option for mitigating the risk of entry of the pest via natural dispersal is via control of the pest in Africa.