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ARS Home » Midwest Area » Ames, Iowa » National Laboratory for Agriculture and The Environment » Soil, Water & Air Resources Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #353819

Research Project: Utilization of the G x E x M Framework to Develop Climate Adaptation Strategies for Temperate Agricultural Systems

Location: Soil, Water & Air Resources Research

Title: Simulating the potential global distribution of the Japanese beetle under current climate and RCP 8.5 scenario

item Kistner-Thomas, Erica

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 7/26/2018
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: The Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), is a highly invasive pest of turf, landscapes, and horticultural crops in the United States. Originally from Japan, this insect has invaded vast areas of North American over the last hundred years and has recently invaded mainland Europe. The distribution and phenology of P. japonica will undoubtedly change as a consequence of climate change, adding additional challenges to managing this species. To assess this, I developed a process-oriented bioclimatic niche model for P. japonica, to examine its potential global distribution under both current climatic conditions and possible future climate under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario for the year 2050. Simulated changes in cumulative degree-days were also examined. Model projections indicate a strong possibility of further range expansion throughout mainland Europe under both current and future climates. In North America, projected increases in temperature would enable further range expansion across Canada while simultaneously reducing suitable range in southern limits of P. japonica’s current USA range. In Europe alone, suitable range for P. japonica would increase by 22.97% by mid-century, especially across portions of the UK, Ireland, and Scandinavia. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, cumulative growing degree-days increased, thereby reducing the probability of two year life cycles in northern latitudes where they are commonly observed, including Hokkaido, Japan, and northeastern portions of the USA. The results of this study highlight several regions of increasing and emerging risk from P. japonica that should be considered routinely in ongoing biosecurity and pest management programs.