|Gautam, Sagar - University Of Missouri|
|Costello, Christine - University Of Missouri|
|Thompson, Allen - University Of Missouri|
|Sadler, Edward - John|
Submitted to: ASABE Annual International Meeting
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 1/21/2018
Publication Date: 7/29/2018
Citation: Gautam, S., Costello, C., Baffaut, C., Thompson, A., Sadler, E.J. 2018. Multi-index evaluation of future drought and climate extreme occurrence in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed. ASABE Annual International Meeting, July 29-Auguast 1, 2018, Detroit, Michigan. Paper #1801151.
Technical Abstract: Understanding the frequency and occurrence of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential for managing natural resources and setting policy. This study aims to identify future patterns of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts based on projection from 12 GCM from Couple Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets and a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (73 km2) in Missouri. Further climate extremes indices were calculated to understand future change in precipitation and temperature extreme. The objectives of this study are to (i) identify drought frequency under historic (1980-2015) and future (2016-2075) climate and (ii) estimate changes in extremes associated with climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in historic and future CMIP5 projection. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Streamflow Index and Soil moisture index were used to represent above three types of droughts, respectively. Long term stream flow and soil moisture content were simulated using SWAT model. Historical drought event were then recognized based on observed precipitation and SWAT simulated streamflow and soil moisture datasets in the period of 1980-2015. Multiple different indices based on temperature and precipitations were calculated for extreme analysis. Results indicate increased occurrence of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts during winter and summer, spring and summer, and winter, spring and summer respectively. Climate extreme indices indicate an increase in warm spell duration and wetter conditions for the future. Future warming and decreased precipitation during summer suggest more summer droughts, which will be a challenge for crop production in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed.