Location: Mosquito and Fly ResearchTitle: An app for climate-based Chikungunya risk monitoring and mapping
|Soebiyanto, Radina - Goddard Space Flight Center|
|Rama, Xhafer - Goddard Space Flight Center|
|Jepsen, Rikke - Goddard Space Flight Center|
|Bijoria, Shivam - Goddard Space Flight Center|
|Linthicum, Kenneth - Ken|
|Anyamba, Assaf - Goddard Space Flight Center|
Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 11/15/2017
Publication Date: 12/6/2017
Citation: Soebiyanto, R., Rama, X., Jepsen, R., Bijoria, S., Linthicum, K., Anyamba, A. 2017. An app for climate-based Chikungunya risk monitoring and mapping. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting. https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm17/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/225088.
Technical Abstract: There is an increasing concern for reemergence and spread of chikungunya in the last 10 years in Africa, the Indian Ocean, and Asia, and range expansion that now reaches the Caribbean, South America and threatens North America. The outbreak of Chikungunya in 2013 and its spread throughout the Americas has so far resulted in more than 1.7 million suspected cases. This has demonstrated the importance of readiness in assessing potential risk of the emergence of vector-borne diseases. Climate and ecological conditions are now recognized as major contributors to the emergence and re-emergence of various vector-borne diseases including Chikungunya. Variations and persistence of extreme climate conditions provide suitable environment for the increase of certain disease vector populations, which then further amplify vector-borne disease transmission. This highlights the importance of climate anomaly information in assessing regions at risk for Chikungunya. In order to address such issue, we are developing a climate-based app, CHIKRISK, which will help decision makers to answer three critical questions: (i) Where has Chikungunya activity occurred; (ii) Where it is occurring now; (iii) Which regions are currently at risk for Chikungunya. We first develop a database of historical Chikungunya outbreak locations compiled from publicly available information. These records are used to map where Chikungunya activity has occurred over time. We leverage on various satellite-based climate data records – such as rainfall, land surface and near surface temperature to characterize evolving conditions prior to and during Chikungunya activity. Chikungunya outbreak data, climate and ancillary (i.e. population and elevation) data are used to develop analytics capability that will produce risk maps. The CHIKRISK app has the capability to visualize historical Chikungunya activity locations, climate anomaly conditions and Chikungunya risk maps. Currently, the focus of the development is on the Caribbean and South America regions. The capability will be expanded in phased manner to the entire world.