Frequency analysis of extreme sub-daily precipitation under stationary and non-stationary conditions across two contrasting hydroclimatic environments

Authors: Demaria, Eleonora; Goodrich, David - Dave; KEEFER, T.O. - Retired ARS Employee

Submitted to: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Publication Type: Other
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/8/2017
Publication Date: 5/8/2017
Publication URL: https://handle.nal.usda.gov/10113/6471158
Citation: Demaria, E.M., Goodrich, D.C., Keefer, T. 2017. Frequency analysis of extreme sub-daily precipitation under stationary and non-stationary conditions across two contrasting hydroclimatic environments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. Discussion 1-28. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-247.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-247

Interpretive Summary: Observed sub-daily precipitation intensities from contrasting hydroclimatic environments in the USA are used to evaluate temporal trends and to develop Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves under stationary and nonstationary climatic conditions. Analyses are based on observations from two United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service (ARS) experimental watersheds located in a semi-arid and a temperate environment. We use an Annual Maximum Series (AMS) and a Partial Duration Series (PDS) approach to identify temporal trends in maximum intensities for durations ranging from 5- to 1440-minutes. A Bayesian approach with Monte Carlo techniques is used to incorporate the effect of non-stationary climatic assumptions in the IDF curves. The results show increasing trends in observed AMS sub-daily intensities in both watersheds whereas trends in the PDS observations are mostly positive in the semi-arid site and a mix of positive and negative in the temperate site. Stationary climate assumptions lead to much lower estimated sub-daily intensities than those under non-stationary assumptions with larger absolute differences found for shorter durations and smaller return periods. The risk of failure (R) of a hydraulic structure is increased for non-stationary effects over those of stationary effects, with absolute differences of 25% for a 100-year return period (T) and a project life (n) of 100 years. The study highlights the importance of considering non-stationarity, due to natural variability or to climate change, in storm design.

Technical Abstract: Observed sub-daily precipitation intensities from contrasting hydroclimatic environments in the USA are used to evaluate temporal trends and to develop Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves under stationary and nonstationary climatic conditions. Analyses are based on observations from two United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service (ARS) experimental watersheds located in a semi-arid and a temperate environment. We use an Annual Maximum Series (AMS) and a Partial Duration Series (PDS) approach to identify temporal trends in maximum intensities for durations ranging from 5- to 1440-minutes. A Bayesian approach with Monte Carlo techniques is used to incorporate the effect of non-stationary climatic assumptions in the IDF curves. The results show increasing trends in observed AMS sub-daily intensities in both watersheds whereas trends in the PDS observations are mostly positive in the semi-arid site and a mix of positive and negative in the temperate site. Stationary climate assumptions lead to much lower estimated sub-daily intensities than those under non-stationary assumptions with larger absolute differences found for shorter durations and smaller return periods. The risk of failure (R) of a hydraulic structure is increased for non-stationary effects over those of stationary effects, with absolute differences of 25% for a 100-year return period (T) and a project life (n) of 100 years. The study highlights the importance of considering non-stationarity, due to natural variability or to climate change, in storm design.