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ARS Home » Midwest Area » Columbia, Missouri » Cropping Systems and Water Quality Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #337742

Research Project: Long-term Management of Water Resources in the Central Mississippi River Basin

Location: Cropping Systems and Water Quality Research

Title: Evaluation of climate variability on drought occurrence in an agricultural watershed

item Gautam, Sagar - University Of Missouri
item Costello, Christine - University Of Missouri
item Baffaut, Claire
item Thompson, Allen - University Of Missouri
item Svoma, Bohumil - University Of Missouri
item Sadler, Edward - John

Submitted to: ASABE Annual International Meeting
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/20/2017
Publication Date: 7/16/2017
Citation: Gautam, S., Costello, C., Baffaut, C., Thompson, A., Svoma, B.M., Sadler, E.J. 2017. Evaluation of climate variability on drought occurrence in an agricultural watershed [abstract]. ASABE Annual International Meeting, July 16-19, 2017, Spokane, Washington. Poster.

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Changes in the future hydrologic cycle due to changes in precipitation and temperature are likely to be associated with increases in hydrologic extremes. This study evaluates the impacts of climate variability on drought using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (73 km2) in Missouri. The frequency and duration of future droughts were predicted using the twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate scenarios for four different relative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). After calibration of the SWAT model based on historical data (1993-2010), simulations were run for the future (until 2075). SWAT-simulated streamflow, soil moisture and precipitation based on climate scenarios were used to compute different drought indices. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI), and Z-score based soil moisture index were computed for historical data to quantify meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought, respectively. The physical values, e.g., mm precipitation, behind indices determined for the historic period, were used to evaluate future drought conditions. Results showed that droughts will occur more frequently than they have during the historic period for the majority of climate scenarios under all four emission scenarios.