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Title: Evaluating potential dryland cropping systems adapted to climate change in the Central Great Plains

Author
item Nielsen, David
item Vigil, Merle
item HANSEN, NIEL - Brigham Young University

Submitted to: Agronomy Journal
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/15/2016
Publication Date: 10/17/2016
Publication URL: http://handle.nal.usda.gov/10113/63263
Citation: Nielsen, D.C., Vigil, M.F., Hansen, N.C. 2016. Evaluating potential dryland cropping systems adapted to climate change in the Central Great Plains. Agronomy Journal. 108:2391-2405.

Interpretive Summary: Precipitation and temperature variability is expected to increase in the semi-arid Central Great Plains in the future. Including forages in dryland cropping systems may reduce the impacts of this increased variability on crop production. This 5-yr study conducted at Akron, CO found that the net economic returns for cropping systems were greater for flexible wheat-based cropping systems which included forages as a rotation phase and for a three-crop, all forage set rotation than for set grain-based rotations. These improved net economic returns were a result of adequate forage production under widely varying precipitation conditions, high prices for forages, and elimination of the fallow phase of the crop rotation (increased cropping intensity). Inclusion of forages into dryland cropping systems in this region appears to be a strategy that can be used to deal with increasing climate variability.

Technical Abstract: Climate in the semi-arid Central Great Plains is expected to become warmer and drier in coming decades, with potentially greater variability in precipitation and temperature. Cropping systems that include forages and allow flexibility for determining if a crop should be planted and which crop to plant (based on available soil water at planting) may provide the opportunity to maintain economic viability in a changing climate environment. The objective of this study was to compare cropping system productivity and profitability of flexible rotations that incorporate forages against grain-based cropping systems that are set rotational sequences. Yield and net returns for five set rotations and three flexible rotations were compared at Akron, CO over five years. Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields were reduced by 57% when the fallow period prior to wheat production was replaced with crop production. Average net income was greatest for the continuously cropped all-forage set 3-yr rotation followed by the flexible 3-yr rotations that included wheat and forage phases. The lowest net returns were seen for the set grain-based rotations and the flexible wheat-grain crop rotation. Incorporating forage production as a phase in dryland wheat rotational systems can add profitability and sustainability to the production system in the face of climate variability.