Location: Mosquito and Fly ResearchTitle: Climate-population analysis of potential mosquito vectors of emerging arbovirus disease threats to the US
|Linthicum, Kenneth - Ken|
|ANYAMBA, ASSAF - Goddard Space Flight Center|
|MONAGHAN, ANDREW - National Center For Atmospheric Research (NCAR)|
Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/30/2016
Publication Date: N/A
Interpretive Summary: This presentation describes new research designed to protect the US from the arrival of exotic mosquito-borne diseases such as Rift Valley fever, an important disease of livestock and humans from Africa. Information on mosquito populations routinely sampled by mosquito and vector control agencies in the US is compared to weather and other environmental factors to develop a system that tracks environmental changes to alert public health agencies when mosquito populations are likely to peak. US locations where mosquito populations are peaking are analyzed for connectivity to African regions where Rift Valley fever may be active, which will guide targeted control of mosquito populations and surveillance for the presence of exotic viruses in mosquitoes.
Technical Abstract: Introduction Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne hemorrhagic viral disease with substantial negative impacts on public and animal health in its endemic range of sub-Saharan Africa. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) could enter the United States and lead to widespread morbidity and mortality in humans, domestic livestock, and wild ungulates, with high economic loss. Some US mosquito species have been identified as potentially competent vectors for RVFV, some US regions have favorable climate for mosquito development and possibly RVFV transmission in months with historically intense RVFV activity in the endemic range, and connectivity exists between RVFV endemic regions and the US. Methods To reduce the likelihood of RVFV introduction to the US, and to understand the capacity of the virus to spread geographically if introduced, we investigated techniques to identify key US locations vulnerable to RVFV incursion based on historical population dynamics of potentially competent US mosquito vectors and their relationship to historical meteorological and satellite environmental data, and based on patterns of US climate during RVF outbreaks in endemic regions. Results/conclusion We derived indices of environmental patterns that historically precede unusually high populations of potential US mosquito vectors of RVFV with lead times of weeks to months. Combined with monitoring of RVF activity in endemic regions, environmental monitoring in the US in high risk locations could be used to develop an early warning and risk management system to protect the US from arrival or spread of RVFV by targeting surveillance and control of potential US mosquito vectors. This system could be adjusted to guide measures against other emerging mosquito-borne disease threats.