The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Authors: WANG, ENLI - Csiro European Laboratory; MARTRE, PIERRE - Institut National De La Recherche Agronomique (INRA); ASSENGE, SENTHOLD - University Of Florida; EWERT, FRANK - University Of Bonn; ZHAO, ZHIGAN - Csiro European Laboratory; MAIORANO, ANDREA - Institut National De La Recherche Agronomique (INRA); ROTTER, REIMUND - Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE); Kimball, Bruce; OTTMAN, MICHAEL - University Of Arizona; Wall, Gerard - Gary; White, Jeffrey; AGGARWAL, PRAMOD - International Water Management Institute; ALDERMAN, PHILIP - International Maize & Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); JAKARAT, ANOTHAI - Washington State University; BASSO, BRUNO - Michigan State University; BIERNATH, CHRISTIAN - German Research Center For Environmental Health; CAMMARANO, DAVIDE - Inland Northwest Research Alliance, Inra; CHALLINOR, ANDREW - University Of Leeds; DE SANCTIS, GIACOMO - National Research Institute For Food And Nutrition (INRAN); DOLTRA, JORDI - Center For Agricultural Research And Training, Cantabria Government (CIFA); FERERES, ELIAS - University Of Spain; GARCIA-VILA, MARGARITA - University Of Spain; SEBASTIAN, GAYLER - University Of Tubingen; HOOGENBOOM, GERRIT - Washington State University; HUNT, LESLIE - University Of Guelph; IZAURRALDE, ROBERTO - Texas A&M Agrilife; JABLOUN, MOHAMED - University Of Denmark; JONES, CURTIS - University Of Maryland; KERSEBAUM, KURT - Institute Of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre For Agricultural Landscape Research; KOEHLER, ANN-KRISTIN - University Of Leeds; MULLER, CHRISTOPH - Potsdam Institute; LIU, LEILEI - Nanjing Agricultural University; KUMAR, SOORA - Indian Agricultural Research Institute; NENDEL, CLAAS - Institute Of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre For Agricultural Landscape Research; O'LEARY, GARRY - Department Of Environment And Primary Industries; OLESEN, JOGEN - University Of Denmark; PALOSUO, TARU - Agricultural Research Center Of Finland; PRIESACK, ECKART - German Research Center For Environmental Health; REYNOLDS, MATTHEW - International Maize & Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT); REZAEI, EHSAN - Institut National De La Recherche Agronomique (INRA); RIPOCHE, DOMINIQUE - Institut National De La Recherche Agronomique (INRA); RUANE, ALEXANDER - National Aeronautics And Space Administration (NASA); SEMENOV, MIKHAIL - Rothamsted Research; SHCHERBAK, IRUII - Michigan State University; STOCKLE, CLAUDIO - Washington State University; STRATONOVITCH, PIERRE - Rothamsted Research; STRECK, THILO - Hohenheim University; SUPIT, IWAN - Wageningen University; TAO, FALU - Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE); THORBURN, PETER - Csiro European Laboratory; WAHA, KATHARINA - Potsdam Institute; WALLACH, DANIEL - Institut National De La Recherche Agronomique (INRA); WOLF, JOOST - University Of Wageningen; ZHU, YAN - Nanjing Agricultural University

Submitted to: Nature Plants
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/5/2017
Publication Date: 7/17/2017
Citation: Wang, E., Martre, P., Assenge, S., Ewert, F., Zhao, Z., Maiorano, A., Rotter, R.P., Kimball, B.A., Ottman, M.J., Wall, G.W., White, J.W., Aggarwal, P.K., Alderman, P.D., Jakarat, A., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A.J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Sebastian, G., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L.A., Izaurralde, R.C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C.D., Kersebaum, K.C., Koehler, A., Muller, C., Liu, L., Kumar, S.N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J.E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Reynolds, M.P., Rezaei, E.E., Ripoche, D., Ruane, A.C., Semenov, M.A., Shcherbak, I., Stockle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wallach, D., Wolf, J., Zhu, Y. 2017. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions. Nature Plants. 3:17102. doi: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102.

Interpretive Summary: Due to expected global warming, crop growth models must be improved to account for the future higher temperature effects on crop yields. To date, there are a huge variety of mathematical functions in use to simulate the response of various plant physiological processes to temperature. In this study, the formulations from 29 wheat growth models were tabulated, and their effects on temperature responses were illustrated. They were tested against data from wheat grown by ARS researchers in Maricopa, Arizona, who grew 16 crops with a variety of planting dates and infrared warming to produce a dataset covering a very wide range of temperatures. The simulations from the models in this study originally varied widely, especially for higher temperatures. However, the authors were able to derive a more universal temperature response formulations, which holds promise for greatly improving the accuracy of the wheat growth models. This research will benefit all consumers of food and fiber.

Technical Abstract: Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.