|LEE, SANGCHUL - University Of Maryland|
|YEO, IN-YOUNG - University Of Maryland|
|Hively, Wells - Dean|
Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/3/2015
Publication Date: 5/3/2015
Citation: Lee, S., Yeo, I., Sadeghi, A.M., Mccarty, G.W., Hively, W.D., Lang, M.W. 2015. Prediction of climate change impacts on agricultural watersheds and the performance of winter cover crops: Case study of the upper region of the Choptank River Watershed. Proceedings of Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers Climate Change Symposium, May 3-5, 2015, Chicago, Illinois.
Technical Abstract: Elevated CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation intensity driven by climate change are expected to cause significant environmental changes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). Although the potential effects of climate change are widely reported, few studies have been conducted to understand implications for water quality and the response of agricultural watersheds to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify changes in hydrological processes and nitrate cycling, as a result of climate variability, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and to specifically assess the performance of winter cover crops (WCC) as a means of reducing climate change impacts on water quality at the watershed scale. WCC planting has been emphasized as the most cost-effective means for water quality protection and widely adopted via federal and state cost-share programs. Climate sensitivity data will be prepared by modifying current climate data using mean temperature and precipitation change for three future periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) predicted by four global climate models. Various sensitivity scenarios will be simulated to examine how driving forces, such as increasing CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation intensity, will individually or synthetically influence water and nutrient cycle and the potential of winter cover crops to nitrate uptake. The findings will extend our understandings of climate change impacts on the CBW and suggest effective WCC treatments (e.g., species and planting timing) for implementation within the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA.