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Title: Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making

Author
item TAKLE, EUGENE - Iowa State University
item ANDERSON, CHRISTOPHER - Iowa State University
item ANDERSON, JEFFREY - University Of Illinois
item ANGEL, JAMES - University Of Illinois
item ELMORE, ROGER - Iowa State University
item GRAMIG, BENJAMIN - Purdue University
item GUINAN, PATRICK - University Of Missouri
item HILBERG, STEVEN - University Of Illinois
item KLUCK, DOUG - National Weather Service
item Schneider, Jeanne

Submitted to: Earth Interactions
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/21/2013
Publication Date: 3/1/2014
Citation: Takle, E.S., Anderson, C.J., Anderson, J., Angel, J., Elmore, R.W., Gramig, B.M., Guinan, P., Hilberg, S., Kluck, D., Schneider, J.M. 2014. Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making. Earth Interactions. 18(5):1-8.

Interpretive Summary: Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertainty and increase profitability for corn producers. The purpose of this paper is to acquaint climate information developers, climate information users, and climate researchers with an overview of weather conditions throughout the year that affect corn production as well as forecast content and timing needed by producers. The authors created a complex cyclic depiction of a corn forecast–decision cycle for corn production decisions in the central Midwest, which clearly reveals the timing, lead times, and variables of highest interest from climate forecasts throughout the year. Through dialog among information providers, information users, and the research community, climate services for this significant agricultural sector can be meaningfully enhanced using this unique forecast–decision cycle perspective. The potential exists for this approach to be expanded for other crops and regions.

Technical Abstract: Corn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertainty and increase profitability for corn producers. The purpose of this paper is to acquaint climate information developers, climate information users, and climate researchers with an overview of weather conditions throughout the year that affect corn production as well as forecast content and timing needed by producers. The authors created a complex cyclic depiction of a corn forecast–decision cycle for corn production decisions in the central Midwest, which clearly reveals the timing, lead times, and variables of highest interest from climate forecasts throughout the year. Through dialog among information providers, information users, and the research community, climate services for this significant agricultural sector can be meaningfully enhanced using this unique forecast–decision cycle perspective. The potential exists for this approach to be expanded for other crops and regions.