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Title: Global change, global trade, and the next wave of plant invasions

Author
item BRADLEY, BETHANY - University Of Massachusetts
item Blumenthal, Dana
item EARLY, REGAN - University Of Evora
item GROSHOLZ, TED - University Of California
item LAWLER, JOSHUA - University Of Washington
item MILLER, LUKE - Northeastern University
item SORTE, CASCADE - University Of Massachusetts
item D'ANTONIO, CARLA - University Of California
item DIEZ, JEFFREY - University Of Michigan
item DUKES, JEFFREY - Purdue University

Submitted to: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/7/2011
Publication Date: 12/2/2011
Citation: Bradley, B.A., Blumenthal, D.M., Early, R., Grosholz, T.D., Lawler, J., Miller, L.P., Sorte, C., D'Antonio, C.M., Diez, J.D., Dukes, J.S. 2011. Global change, global trade, and the next wave of plant invasions. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 10:20-28.

Interpretive Summary: Many invasive plants in the United States have become problematic for native and managed ecosystems, but a new generation of invaders may be at our doorstep. We show that novel species introductions from emerging horticulture trade partners are likely to rapidly increase invasion risk. At the same time, climate change and water restrictions are increasing demand for new types of species adapted to warm and dry environments. This confluence of forces will likely expose the U.S. to a range of new invasive species, including many from tropical and semi-arid Africa as well as the Middle East.

Technical Abstract: Many non-native, invasive plants in the United States have become problematic for native and managed ecosystems, but a new generation of invaders may be at our doorstep. We review trends in the horticultural trade and invasion patterns of previously introduced species and show that novel species introductions from emerging horticulture trade partners are likely to rapidly increase invasion risk. At the same time, climate change and water restrictions are increasing demand for new types of species adapted to warm and dry environments. This confluence of forces will likely expose the U.S. to a range of new invasive species, including many from tropical and semi-arid Africa as well as the Middle East. Risk assessment strategies have proven successful elsewhere at identifying and preventing invasions, although some modifications are needed to address emerging threats. Now is the time to implement horticulture import screening measures to prevent this new wave of plant invaders.