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United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Research Service


Location: Mosquito and Fly Research

Title: Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

item Anyamba, Assaf
item Linthicum, Kenneth - Ken
item Small, Jennifer
item Britch, Seth
item Pak, Edwin
item De La Rocque, Stephane
item Formenty, Pierre
item Hightower, Allen
item Breiman, Robert
item Chretien, Jean-paul
item Tucker, Compton
item Schnabel, David
item Sang, Rosemary
item Haagsma, Karl
item Latham, Mark
item Lewandowski, Henry
item Osman Magdi, Salih
item Mohamed, Mohamed Ally
item Nguku, Patrick
item Reynes, Jean-marc
item Swanepoel, Robert

Submitted to: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 4/1/2010
Publication Date: 8/1/2010
Publication URL:
Citation: Anyamba, A., Linthicum, K., Small, J., Britch, S.C., Pak, E., De La Rocque, S., Formenty, P., Hightower, A.W., Breiman, R., Chretien, J., Tucker, C.J., Schnabel, D., Sang, R., Haagsma, K., Latham, M., Lewandowski, H.B., Osman Magdi, S., Mohamed, M., Nguku, P.M., Reynes, J., Swanepoel, R. 2010. Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006 - 2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 83(2):43-51.

Interpretive Summary: Rift Valley fever is a severe disease of domestic animals and humans in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, and it poses a threat to other places in the world, including North America. Global and regional climate conditions, detected by earth-orbiting satellites, were used to predict three Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Africa from 2006-2008. These predictions formed the basis for national and international disease response efforts.

Technical Abstract: Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning and mitigation into the future.

Last Modified: 10/18/2017
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