|Van Den Bosch, F.|
|Gilligan, C. A.|
Submitted to: Phytopathology
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 5/3/2009
Publication Date: 6/5/2009
Publication URL: http://doi:10.1094/PHYTO-99-12-1370
Citation: Parnell, S., Gottwald, T.R., Van Den Bosch, F., Gilligan, C. 2009. Optimal strategies for the eradication of Asiatic citrus canker in heterogeneous host landscapes. Phytopathology. Interpretive Summary: Eradication of pathogens that cause diseases of crops and or dooryard plants of the same species can be very complex and have limited success when the pathogen is well established. This paper we demonstrate a model that can be used to optimize eradication procedures in various ways to improve the chances of success. This method is very important to regulatory agencies and commodity groups who are faced with trying to eradicate such pathogens. The method also provides means for quicker eradication or eradication that is somewhat slower and therefore more tolerable to the commercial industry or residential owners, but requires more time.
Technical Abstract: The eradication of non-native plant pathogens is a key challenge in plant disease epidemiology. Asiatic citrus canker is an economically significant disease of citrus caused by the bacterial plant pathogen Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri. The pathogen is a major exotic disease problem in many citrus producing areas of the world including the US, Brazil and Australia. Various eradication attempts have been made on the disease but have been associated with significant social and economic costs due to the necessary removal of large numbers of host trees. In this paper a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model of Asiatic citrus canker is introduced which describes an epidemic of the disease in a heterogeneous host landscape. We show that an optimum eradication strategy can be determined which minimises the adverse costs associated with eradication. In particular we show how the optimum strategy and its total cost depend on the topological arrangement of the host landscape. We discuss the implications of the results for invading plant disease epidemics in general and for historical and future eradication attempts on Asiatic citrus canker.