Submitted to: Joint Assembly of the European and American Geophysical Unions
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: 3/18/2009
Publication Date: 5/24/2009
Citation: Nicholson, T.J., Cady, R.E., Cohen, S., Pachepsky, Y.A. 2009. Assessing and reducing hydrogeologic model uncertainty. Joint Assembly of the European and American Geophysical Unions. Eos Trans. AGU, 90(22), jt. Assem. Suppl., Abstract H11D-08 Interpretive Summary:
Technical Abstract: NRC is sponsoring research that couples model abstraction techniques with model uncertainty assessment methods. Insights and information from this program will be useful in decision making by NRC staff, licensees and stakeholders in their assessment of subsurface radionuclide transport. All analytical methods that quantify radionuclide transport in the environment implicitly involve different levels of model abstraction. Our formalized model abstraction process provides a systematic approach to understand the adequacy of model simplification and facilitates communication and transparency of the model to regulators, stakeholders and the general public. The objectives of model abstraction is: to improve the reliability and reduce uncertainty of simulations; to make the modeling results more explicable and transparent; and to enable more efficient use of available resources in data collection and computation. The coupling of model abstraction to uncertainty assessments uses a streamlined methodology that focuses on conceptual, parameter and scenario uncertainties within a model abstraction framework. Both the model abstraction process and the streamlined methodology are demonstrated using a simple field study analysis involving solute transport.