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Title: CALCULATING THE CLIMATIC IMPACTS OF INCREASED CO2: THE ISSUE OF MODEL VALIDATION

Author
item SOON, WILLIE - HARAVARD-SMITHSONIAN CTR
item BALIUNAS, SALLIE - HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CTR
item KONDRATYEV, KIRILL - RES CTR FOR ECOL SAFETY
item Idso, Sherwood
item POSMENTIER, ERIC - LONG ISLAND UNIV NY

Submitted to: Special Publication 463 European Space Agency Noordwijk The Netherlands
Publication Type: Proceedings
Publication Acceptance Date: 10/11/2000
Publication Date: N/A
Citation: N/A

Interpretive Summary: In view of widespread concern over the ongoing rise in the air's carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, it is important to know what degree of confidence can be placed in climate change predictions derived from general circulation models of the atmosphere. Hence, we reviewed a number of subjects related to climate model validation; and in so doing, we concluded that existing model formulations of many critical processes are too crude to enable a meaningful validation to be made. This information should be of great importance to policymakers who must carefully weigh the pros and cons of proceeding or not proceeding with the implementation of measures designed to impact anthropogenic CO2 emission rates.

Technical Abstract: It is commonly believed that increased man-made greenhouse gases may cause large increases in surface and lower atmospheric temperatures with disastrous global and regional environmental consequences. Because the expected human-made climate forcings are relatively small when compared to various other natural (both internal and external) background and forcing factors, we focus on the important question of climate model validation. We reviewed common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, and precipitation and their complex space-time variability associated with the multiple interacting climate components and feedbacks. These deficiencies also impact our understanding of natural causes of climate change such as variations in the radiant and particle energy outputs of the Sun. We also review examples of expected climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 forcing.