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Title: Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance

Author
item SORTE, CASCADE - University Of Massachusetts
item IBANEZ, INES - University Of Michigan
item Blumenthal, Dana
item MOLINARI, NICOLE - University Of California
item MILLER, LUKE - Stanford University
item GROSHOLZ, EDWIN - University Of California
item DIEZ, JEFFREY - Eth Zurich
item D'ANTONIO, CARLA - University Of California
item OLDEN, JULIAN - University Of Washington
item JONES, SIERRA - University Of South Carolina

Submitted to: Ecology Letters
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: 9/17/2012
Publication Date: 10/15/2012
Citation: Sorte, C.J., Ibanez, I., Blumenthal, D.M., Molinari, N., Miller, L.P., Grosholz, E.D., Diez, J.M., D'Antonio, C.M., Olden, J.D., Jones, S.J. 2012. Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance. Ecology Letters. 16:261-271.

Interpretive Summary: There is mounting evidence that future climate change may facilitate biological invasions. To date, this hypothesis has been examined though local comparisons of single or few species. Here, we provide the first meta-analysis of this hypothesis, examining 132 studies that included responses of native and non-native species to elevated CO2, warming, and changes in precipitation. Our analyses revealed that in terrestrial systems, native and non-native species responded similarly to environmental changes. However, in aquatic systems, increases in temperature and CO2 primarily inhibited native species. As climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. Across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, while sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions.

Technical Abstract: Climate change and biological invasions are primary threats to global biodiversity that may operate synergistically in the future. To date, the hypothesis that climate change will favor non-native species has been examined though local comparisons of single or few species. We took a meta-analytical approach to examine whether non-native species are poised to outperform native species in future climatic conditions. We compiled a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that recorded performance measures of non-native (157 species) and co-occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, CO2, and precipitation conditions. Our analyses revealed that in terrestrial systems, native and non-native species responded similarly to environmental changes. However, in aquatic systems, increases in temperature and CO2 primarily inhibited native species. There was a general trend towards stronger responses among non-native species, including stronger positive responses to more favorable conditions as well as enhanced negative responses to less favorable conditions. As climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. Across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, while sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions.