Location: Sustainable Agricultural Water Systems Research
Project Number: 2032-12610-002-031-S
Project Type: Non-Assistance Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Jul 1, 2026
End Date: Sep 3, 2027
Objective:
California’s nut industry accounts for over three-quarters of global production and is a critical source of agricultural income for the states farming sector. Because almond, walnut, and pistachio trees are highly sensitive during critical growth phases like dormancy and bloom seasonal unpredictable weather can severely impact yield and nut quality. This project proposes the development of a risk-management framework to help buffer the economic impacts of nut crop yield losses by leveraging advanced forecasting technology. The framework will support NRCS conservation planners and growers in communicating, assessing, and mitigating production risks.
To ensure the tool is practical and user-friendly, we will conduct extensive stakeholder engagement with NRCS staff and partners to tailor model outputs into an accessible and easy-to-navigate platform. A primary goal is to enable NRCS staff to incorporate within-season yield forecasting models into conservation planning discussions, helping evaluate how regenerative agriculture practices may influence crop outcomes and inform program development for landowners.
Approach:
The project aims to bridge the gap between complex crop data, practical orchard management and NRCS program applications specifically those that support regenerative agriculture through three main pillars: 1) Integrated Data Systems: we propose merging high-resolution historical observations with real-time temperature data and long-range outlooks. 2) Stress Indicators: our proposed framework identifies specific threats such as insufficient winter chill, frost during bloom, and extreme heat during fruit development. 3) Predictive AI: using this high powered technology we propose combining traditional numerical modeling with artificial intelligence, this extends the "lead time" of forecasts, offering reliable insights several weeks in advance to be more useful for growers.
Outcomes - The first outcome of this work is a prototype dashboard. This tool is designed to: 1) Visualize regional risks across California’s growing zones. 2) Estimate the probability of damaging events (like a late spring freeze) based on current tree growth stages. 3) Provide early warnings, allowing growers to implement protective measures or adjust management plans before a weather event occurs. The framework will potentially be adaptable and scalable to other high value perennial crops in California. The second outcome of this work includes a two-pronged approach. First, we propose hosting (4-6) in person and web-based NRCS engagement and exchange sessions to communicate tools (including those mentioned here and others) and resources to help perennial growers cope with and mitigate extreme weather events using applicable resources. Second, we propose to build web-based tutorials that guide NRCS users in a step wise fashion through web-based decision support modules. Through crop tailored tools development and targeted dissemination, we expect to enhance usability of these tools across the state.