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ARS Home » Crop Production and Protection » Research » Research Project #449817

Research Project: Monitoring and Predictive Modeling of Airborne Aspergillus Flavus Spore Counts in Corn

Location: Crop Production and Protection

Project Number: 0500-00102-001-094-A
Project Type: Cooperative Agreement

Start Date: Aug 10, 2026
End Date: Aug 9, 2027

Objective:
This project has two primary objectives. First, we will collect season-long measurements of airborne Aspergillus flavus spore concentrations within an inoculated corn field in Texas. Quantification of A. flavus spores will focus on differentiating distribution abundances of fungi able to produce aflatoxin and biocontrol. These data will be paired with weather data from an on-site weather station. Second, we will quantify how the microclimate of the field influences the quantity of airborne A. flavus spores and incorporate these correlations into an existing neural network (NN) aflatoxin risk model (Castano-Duque et al., 2025), improving its mechanistic realism and predictive skill.

Approach:
The project will be completed over 1.5 years, consisting of one full growing season of field sampling followed by laboratory processing, data analysis, and model development. This work will convert aerobiological and weather data into actionable improvements in aflatoxin risk prediction tools. By focusing on both toxigenic and biocontrol A. flavus strains, the results will directly address outbreak scenarios and how biocontrol usage spreads in the fields, which are concerns from growers. Improved representation of spore dispersal processes will reduce uncertainty in aflatoxin risk forecasts, supporting more informed in-season decision-making.