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ARS Home » Northeast Area » Orient Point, New York » Plum Island Animal Disease Center » Foreign Animal Disease Research » Research » Research Project #437241

Research Project: Updating Parameters for Foreign Animal Disease Transmission Modeling

Location: Foreign Animal Disease Research

Project Number: 8064-32000-061-60-I
Project Type: Interagency Reimbursable Agreement

Start Date: Aug 1, 2019
End Date: Jul 31, 2022

Objective:
This interagency agreement will provide for continued analysis of data to improve preparedness and response planning for Foreign Animal Diseases (FADs), emphasizing foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Key data sets related to pathogenesis, disease transmission, and diagnostic test results and mutual analysis and interpretation of the data will improve understanding of disease transmission and the implications for preparedness and response. Specific objectives: 1. Development of disease spread parameters from different foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) strains and serotypes. 2. Evaluate the impact of infection dynamics on disease spread and response planning. 3. Improve FMD preparedness and response planning for feedlots.

Approach:
1. The development of disease spread parameters for different FMDV and ASFV strains and serotypes will be conducted through the continued analysis of data to develop and/or adapt parameters for the standard national models for multiple species. Final parameters will be incorporated into the national FMD model and adjusted as necessary to herd prevalence estimates and probabilities of transmission. The next steps to improve the specificity of the length of infectiousness in cattle and pigs will be identified. 2. The evaluation of the impacts of infection dynamics on disease spread and response planning will be conducted through the adaptation of a model to reflect commercial pig farm structure, movements and contact rates. A model will be created within the herd spread of FMD using information on pigs’ infectious period in a commercial pig production operation and the probabilities of detection associated with different diagnostic approaches. Sample analyses to determine appropriate proxies for estimating infectiousness of ASFV from live pigs. Timelines of experimentally determined infectiousness of pigs correlated with detection of ASFV in blood and secretions will be determined. 3. To identify improved methods for preparedness and response planning for feedlots a model will be created for the duration of the FMD carrier state utilizing available data from field studies in endemic regions. A model of the economic impacts of persistent FMD infection in cattle and swine associated with different response options in the event of a widespread outbreak of FMD in the United States will be created.