Location: Pasture Systems & Watershed Management Research
2020 Annual Report
Objectives
Objective 1: Assess and improve sustainable intensification strategies of crop and integrated crop-livestock systems for farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes.
Sub-objective 1A: Quantify long-term sustainabilities of “business as usual” (BAU) and “aspirational” (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through farm simulation and life cycle assessment.
Sub-objective 1B: Develop management and placement strategies for improving ecosystem service provisioning through diverse agricultural landscapes that integrate crop and livestock systems.
Objective 2: Determine the sensitivity of farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes to climate variability and develop strategies for adapting agriculture to current and projected changes.
Sub-objective 2A: Quantify effects of projected climate and potential adaptation strategies on long-term sustainabilities of “business as usual” (BAU) and “aspirational” (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through the use of farm simulation and life cycle assessment.
Sub-objective 2B: Characterize the landscape-scale responses and trade-offs of agricultural ecosystem services, given projected climate and potential adaptation scenarios.
Approach
Agriculture faces increasing demands for productivity and efficiency that must be balanced against pressures to continually improve stewardship of natural resources. Climate models from 1950 through 2100 predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Northeast, further complicating agricultural sustainability planning. Our research focuses on whole farms, watersheds, and landscapes to quantitatively evaluate both long-term sustainabilities and broader environmental impacts of various agricultural production systems under current and predicted climate. We will evaluate alternative production strategies based on economic viability, implementation feasibility, and impacts to ecosystem services and disservices. We are concerned with not only provisioning ecosystem services such as dairy, beef, and crop production but also supporting and regulating services like nutrient cycling and landscape diversity. Disservices from agriculture include greenhouse gas emissions and other nutrient losses to air and water.
Our two objectives assess “business as usual” (BAU) and “aspirational” (ASP) agricultural production strategies for sustainable intensification at multiple scales. The (A) sub-objectives are farm-scale in detail and industry-wide in scope. The (B) sub-objectives focus on landscape-scale hydrology and ecology within the Northeast to inform both local and multi-regional research efforts. Objective 1 assesses strategies under recent climate conditions (1980-2005), and corroborates our modeling tools in representing BAU and ASP strategies. To be most valuable, however, developed strategies and tools must be successful under future climate conditions. Objective 2 corroborates our tools under historical climate (1960-1980) and applies them under future mid-century (2040-2060) and late-century (2080-2100) climate projections, assessing ASP strategies that most effectively meet the challenges and opportunities of future climate.
We will collaborate with larger USDA-led research networks, including the Long-Term Agroecological Research network (LTAR), Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), and Dairy Agroecosystems Working Group (DAWG). Such networking provides expertise and data on outcomes from management strategies for cropping and integrated crop-livestock systems that will be used to confirm results of the first objective and provide a basis for extrapolation of future systems for the second. We will analyze data using both simple and complex process-based simulation models, life cycle assessment, and advanced computational techniques.
With an emphasis on sustainable intensification in accord with climate predictions, our research will support systems-level understandings of current and potential agricultural systems in the Northeast, and how these can continue to produce food and fuel in the future. Outcomes of this research will support farmers directly through management strategies and decision support tools, and will provide scientifically-valid data to federal and state programs aimed at improving nutrient management, conservation, and resource use efficiency.
Progress Report
Progress was made on both objectives and their subobjectives, all of which fall under National Program Action Plan 216: Agricultural System Competitiveness and Sustainability and contributes to Component 1: Building agroecosystems for intensive, resilient production via GxExM; Component 2: Increasing efficiency of agroecosystems; and Component 3: Reaching agroecosystem potentials.
Under Objective 1, Subobjective 1A, a comprehensive assessment was completed on the environmental sustainability of grass-based dairy farms in Pennsylvania. We found that this production strategy can provide environmental benefits to a local watershed, but due to a lower efficiency in milk production compared to larger confinement farms, this strategy increases the aggregate environmental impacts of regional and global supply chains. Working toward a national sustainability assessment of United States dairy farms, representative dairy farms were developed with preliminary environmental assessments for the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and Northwest regions. Simulation analyses were completed using the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) to determine environmental benefits and economic costs of using a cover crop, interseeded grass crop, or small grain double crop with corn production on Pennsylvania dairy farms. Reductions in sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus losses varied across the different management approaches used on farms with interseeding of annual grass in the growing corn crop providing the greatest reduction. Use of cover crops or interseeding increased the producer’s costs, but double cropping small grain silage with corn silage increased feed production providing economic benefit. Several beef cattle producing operations in the arid southwestern region of the U.S. were surveyed and interviewed to learn their production practices. Each ranch was modeled and simulated with the Integrated Farm System Model to study the environmental sustainability of their production system. These studies provide baseline information for representing cattle production strategies in this arid region, which will lead to the development of more sustainable practices.
Under Subobjective 1B, crop-livestock rotations and management scenarios were evaluated for their effectiveness in economically reducing nutrient losses from crop fields and from riparian buffers. Watershed simulation modeling demonstrated the importance of best management practice planning at the local level in order to address both local and regional concerns within the Chesapeake Bay catchment. Analysis of field-level runoff showed that shallow-disk injection of dairy manure helps reduce phosphorus losses as compared to broadcast application of the manure. Sampling of concentrated flow path soils above and within riparian buffers provided information on the movement and persistence of row crop pesticides from application site to stream. Additionally, impacts of buffer designs on water quality losses were modeled to determine the potential for flexibility in the buffer design. Allowing harvesting in one zone of the buffer vegetation (either trees or grasses) was found to minimally impact water quality as compared to more conventional, non-harvested methods. However, under the highest input loading conditions, buffers with lower removal efficiencies removed more total mass than did buffers with high removal efficiencies. These results highlight the importance of evaluating effectiveness based on both percent removal and total mass removed. A workshop is currently being planned to evaluate risk assessment and risk management tools for vegetative filter strip performance. Another, more broadly-focused, workshop bringing together experts in soil health processes and water quality modeling is also in the planning stages. Two forage production models for dominant forage species -- orchardgrass, timothy, and perennial ryegrass – were parameterized to improve northeastern United States modeling of pasture production and forage systems. These models were developed in northern Europe, for similar climates and species. Models were tested against biomass data from previously-conducted small plot and field experiments in the northeastern United States. Finally, we quantified and evaluated strategies to reduce the hurdle rates for double cropping in corn-soybean growing regions in the US. We found that identifying a new market for straw, such as a feedstock for cellulosic ethanol, significantly improved the economic viability of barley and wheat further north into the Corn Belt. We found that although rye biomass increased, it was never profitable to apply nitrogen fertilizer. Cereal rye as a biomass crop was only profitable in the southerly regions without application of nitrogen fertilizer. Considering the sensitivity of double crop rotation economics to soybean yields, and that barley impacts soybean yields less than wheat does in the northern regions, establishment of a bioenergy or pulp market for biomass could provide significant incentive for widespread planting of winter barley as a double crop in corn-soybean rotations.
Under Objective 2, Subobjective 2A, we evaluated corn and alfalfa yield and evapotranspiration response to atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment predicted by three process-based cropping system models for six counties of Pennsylvania and New York. The three models simulated similar crop response to increasing carbon dioxide for grain yield, total biomass yield and harvest index, with predicted responses within the ranges measured in free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments. Following this verification, the Integrated Farm System Model was used to evaluate the effect of increasing carbon dioxide and changing climate on double crop corn and rye silage systems on dairy farms in central Pennsylvania. The Integrated Farm System Model was evaluated in representing the performance and nutrient losses of corn production in the Northern Plains region using cattle manure without bedding, manure with bedding, urea fertilizer and no fertilization treatments. Following verification, 25-year simulations showed greater ammonia emission and soluble P runoff with use of feedlot and bedded manure compared to use of inorganic fertilizers, but life-cycle fossil energy use and greenhouse gas emission were decreased. Projected climate change by mid-century gave a small increase in simulated feed production in the Dakotas and a small decrease for irrigated corn in Nebraska. Climate change affected the three production systems similarly, so production and environmental impact differences among the fertilization systems under future climate were generally similar to those obtained under recent climate.
Under Subobjective 2B, three northeastern Long-Term Agroecosystem Research watersheds were simulated under nine climate forecasts to determine early-, mid-, and late-century predictions of agricultural water quantity and quality. Comparisons across watershed characteristics and management practices are helping us to determine the features that are jointly most sensitive to predicted climate changes. Comparisons of complex models and simpler tools are also being used to determine the most effective way for conservationists to locate and select appropriate best management practices at the field-level. However, research on the impacts of climate change on agriculture in the Northeast and nationally often requires high-resolution spatially gridded projections of future temperature and precipitation. There are multiple sources of such data available, from different global models, different greenhouse gas scenarios, and different down-scaling algorithms. A consistent research infrastructure requires understanding the trade-offs among these sources, and practicality requires reducing the number of different sources that must be considered. A detailed comparison of thirty models identified a subset of five models that adequately captured potential climate variability for Pennsylvania. Additional comparisons across this suite of models and for additional gridding algorithms are underway to expand this analysis to the contiguous United States to facilitate climate studies for the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research network and other national projects. Weather and climate data have been provided to multiple Long-Term Agroecosystem Research working groups, and for multiple peer-reviewed and popular publications.
Accomplishments
1. Barley feedstock for advanced fuel production. Reducing the carbon footprint of transportation fuels to replace gasoline is an important goal; identifying new crops and ways to produce ethanol with a low carbon footprint is a challenge. In this study ARS scientists in University Park, Pennsylvania, and university scientists quantified the carbon footprint of a new way to produce ethanol from barley. We found that ethanol could be produced from barley with a carbon footprint less than half that of gasoline, allowing it to meet the advanced fuel standard of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This study provided USEPA with the information necessary to determine if the process will qualify for advanced fuel production.
2. Water and soil key to crop diversity in U.S. Diverse agricultural landscapes contribute to ecosystem services such as pollinator habitat, nutrient cycling, and water provisioning, but little is known about the environmental constraints on crop diversity across the contiguous United States. An analysis of crop diversity from 2008-2019 identified the climatic and soils factors related to the number and diversity of crops grown regionally and nationally. Water availability, through both irrigation and rainfall, was the dominant driver. Planning for crop diversity will require consideration of future changes in precipitation patterns, also of the declining availability of water for irrigation. Novel agricultural systems may be required to maintain or increase crop diversity and the ecosystem service benefits it provides.
Review Publications
Ranck, E., Holden, L., Dillon, J., Rotz, C.A., Soder, K.J. 2020. Economic and environmental impact of double cropping winter annuals and corn using the integrated farm system model. Journal of Dairy Science. 103:3804–3815. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-17525.
Goslee, S.C. 2020. Drivers of agricultural diversity in the contiguous United States. Frontiers in Environmental Science. 4(75):1-12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.00075.
Kim, D., Stoddart, N., Rotz, C.A., Veltman, K., Chase, L., Cooper, J., Ingranham, P., Izaurralde, R., Jones, C.D., Gaillard, R., Aguirre-Villegas, H., Larson, R.A., Ruark, M., Salas, W., Jolliet, O., Thoma, G.J. 2019. Analysis of beneficial management practices to mitigate environmental impacts in dairy production systems around the Great Lakes. Agricultural Systems.176:1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102660.
Bolster, C.H., Baffaut, C., Nelson, N.O., Osmond, D.L., Cabrera, M.L., Ramirez-Avila, J.J., Sharpley, A.N., Veith, T.L., McFarland, A.M., Senaviratne, A.G., Pierzynski, G.M., Udawatta, R.P. 2019. Development of PLEAD: a database containing event-based runoff phosphorus loadings from agricultural fields. Journal of Environmental Quality. 48:510-517. https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2018.09.0337.
Lohani, S., Baffaut, C., Thompson, A.L., Aryal, N., Bingner, R.L., Bjorneberg, D.L., Bosch, D.D., Bryant, R.B., Buda, A.R., Dabney, S.M., Davis, A.R., Duriancik, L.F., James, D.E., King, K.W., Kleinman, P.J., Locke, M.A., McCarty, G.W., Pease, L.A., Reba, M.L., Smith, D.R., Tomer, M.D., Veith, T.L., Williams, M.R., Yasarer, L.M. 2020. Performance of the Soil Vulnerability Index with respect to slope, digital elevation model resolution, and hydrologic soil group. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 75(1):12-27. https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.75.1.12.
Rotz, C.A., Stout, R.C., Holly, M.A., Kleinman, P.J. 2020. Regional assessment of dairy farm environmental footprints. Journal of Dairy Science. 130:3275-3288. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-17388.
Spatari, S., Staedel, A., Adler, P.R., Kar, S., Parton, W.J., Hicks, K.B., Mcaloon, A.J., Gurian, P.L. 2020. The role of biorefinery co-products, market proximity and feedstock environmental footprint in meeting biofuel policy goals for winter barley-to-ethanol. Energies. 1-15. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13092236.
Spiegal, S.A., Kleinman, P.J., Endale, D.M., Bryant, R.B., Dell, C.J., Goslee, S.C., Meinen, R.J., Flynn, K.C., Baker, J.M., Browning, D.M., McCarty, G.W., Bittman, S., Carter, J.D., Cavigelli, M.A., Duncan, E.W., Gowda, P.H., Li, X., Ponce, G., Raj, C., Silveira, M., Smith, D.R., Arthur, D.K., Yang, Q. 2020. Manuresheds: Advancing nutrient recycling in US agriculture. Agricultural Systems. 182:102813. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102813.
Amin, M.G., Veith, T.L., Shortle, J.S., Karsten, H.D., Kleinman, P.J. 2020. Towards an efficient watershed-specific management plan using a variable source area hydrology watershed model. Journal of Environmental Quality. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20051.
Hirt, C.C., Veith, T.L., Collick, A.S., Yetter, S.E., Brooks, R.P. 2020. Headwater stream condition and nutrient runoff: relating the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to empirical ecological measures in an agricultural watershed in pennsylvania. Journal of Environmental Quality. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20032.
Karki, R., Srivastava, P., Veith, T.L. 2019. Application of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) at the field-scale: categorizing methods and review of applications. Transactions of the ASABE. 63(2):513-522. doi:10.13031/trans.13545
Kibuye, F.A., Gall, H.E., Veith, T.L., Elkin, K.R., Elliott, H.A., Harper, J.P., Watson, J.E. 2019. Influence of hydrologic and anthropogenic drivers on emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) in drinking water sources in the Susquehanna River Basin. Environmental Pollution. 245:125583. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.125583.
Veith, T.L., Gall, H.E., Elkin, K.R. 2020. Characterizing transport of natural and anthropogenic constituents in a long-term agricultural watershed in the northeastern US. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Society. 75(3):319-329. https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.75.3.319.
Kibuye, F.A., Elkin, K.R., Gall, H.E., Swistock, B., Watson, J.E., Veith, T.L., Elliott, H.A. 2019. Occurrence, concentrations, and risks of pharmaceutical compounds in private wells in Central Pennsylvania. Journal of Environmental Quality. 48:1057-1066. https://dx.doi.org/10.2134/jeq2018.08.0301.
Kyung Lee, E., Xuesong, Z., Adler, P.R., Kleppel, G.S., Xiaobo, X. 2020. Spatially and temporally explicit life cycle analysis of global warming, eutrophication and acidification from corn production in the U.S. Midwest. Journal of Cleaner Production. 242:1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118465.
Kyung Lee, E., Zhang, W., Adler, P.R., Xue, X., Lin, S., Feingolda, B.J., Haider, K.A., Romeiko, X.X. 2020. Projecting life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in the U.S. Midwest under future climate scenarios using a machine learning approach. Science of the Total Environment. 714:1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136697.
Rotz, C.A., Holly, M., De Long, A., Egan, F., Kleinman, P.J. 2020. An environmental assessment of grass-based dairy production. Applied Animal Science. 184:1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102887.
Castano-Sanchez, J.P., Rotz, C.A., Karsten, H.D., Kemanian, A.R. 2020. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide effects on dairy crops in the northeast US: A comparison of model predictions and observed data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 291:1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108093.
Rotz, C.A. 2020. Environmental sustainability of livestock production. Meat and Muscle Biology. 4(2):1-18. https://doi.org/10.22175/mmb.11103.
