Project Number: 3072-22000-016-36-S
Project Type: Non-Assistance Cooperative Agreement
Start Date: Aug 15, 2018
End Date: Sep 14, 2021
The objective of this project is to develop, evaluate, test, and integrate into myfields.info or other agreed upon web-based product a biometeorological model of sugarcane aphid regional population dynamics.
Daily migratory flights of SCA will be simulated using the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model (HYSPLIT PC version 4.9) following the methods previously employed by John Westbrook. The 40-km resolution EDAS (Eta Data Assimilation System) data set will provide input to HYSPLIT model simulations of SCA migration. The proportion of migrants will be estimated based on local host suitability, which will be associated with crop growth stage and presence of alternative plant hosts, and direct measurements of SCA populations of winged individuals. Daily availability of migrant aphids at source locations will be defined for universally invoking simulated 12-h emigration flights (1200 to 0000 Universal Coordinated Time [UTC]). For daily flights, the emigrant proportion of the aphid population will be directly transferred to an emission (i.e., emigratory) source file as input to the HYSPLIT model simulations. Resident and migratory aphids will contribute to infestation only within the spatial extent and suitability of susceptible host plants. The number of winged aphids that develop during a specific time period will be pooled into a single cohort for comparison with scouting data. Seasonal patterns of simulated abundance of aphids originating from source areas will be mapped. Predictions will be validated by ongoing monitoring in AWPM demonstration areas and intensive ground-truthing at locations where model predictions indicate SCA deposition. Once tested and evaluated the model will be integrated into myfields.info or other appropriate software system for dissemination of results to pest managers and others with need for timely information on SCA seasonal movement and distribution. The model will also be used to test areawide pest management scenarios, such as optimal deployment strategies for SCA resistant sorghum varieties.