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ARS Home » Pacific West Area » Wapato, Washington » Temperate Tree Fruit and Vegetable Research » Research » Research Project #434882

Research Project: Improved Risk Modeling and Monitoring for Invasive Fruit Pests

Location: Temperate Tree Fruit and Vegetable Research

Project Number: 2092-22430-003-10-I
Project Type: Interagency Reimbursable Agreement

Start Date: Jul 1, 2018
End Date: Sep 30, 2020

The risk of insect pests that attack fruit crops (primarily tree fruits) entering and establishing in the Pacific Northwest. To address this problem, we will improve risk assessments for multiple insect pests of concern using ecological niche models along with landscape heterogeneity (LH) models. This will improve current invasive species monitoring and augment current systems-based approaches. Our approach is multi-faceted, and takes into account potential pest distribution, detection, and identification. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) will be used to assess the invasive potential of new pests of temperate fruit crops, such as brown marmorated stink bug, oriental fruit moth, blueberry maggot, European cherry fruit fly, and spotted-wing drosophila. The risk of introduction and spread of invasive species will be assessed using a combination of ENM, LH in conjunction with established pathways analyses and the pest risk analysis program currently being used by USDA-APHIS, the @RISK program. A decision tree will be constructed based on results from these programs. Additionally, improved trapping systems will be developed using the models along with transportation optimization programs to improve efficiency and accuracy of survey programs. Each survey program can be individualized for each pest/cropping system using specific information identified in the ENM and LH models.

Develop risk based models and decision support tools to reduce the arrival and establishment of exotic plant pest species by mapping the potential for establishment of European cherry fruit fly, brown marmorated stink bug, blueberry maggot, and spotted wing drosophila in the United States. landscape heterogeneity maps with ecological niche models and travel optimization programs to increase the efficacy and decrease the costs associated with pest trapping programs.