Location: Subtropical Plant Pathology Research
Project Number: 6034-22000-039-41-R
Project Type: Reimbursable
Start Date: Jan 1, 2013
End Date: Sep 30, 2016
To examine if citrus fruit is a viable pathway for dissemination to, and establishment of, G. citricarpa in areas currently free of Black Spot in other states and overseas.
To accomplish this, we plan to conduct a non-regulatory motivated probabilistic risk assessment of the life history of G. citricarpa and examine the survival and persistence of G. citricarpa lesions on developing and mature fruit. This will be done via a stochastic model and Monte Carlo simulation with sensitivity analyses to assess the true risk of G. citricarpa moving through all steps in the pathway and becoming established in the termination point of the pathway, i.e., new previously uninfected areas.