Project Number: 8042-61660-008-04-R
Project Type: Reimbursable
Start Date: Mar 1, 2013
End Date: Feb 28, 2014
Process level crop models will be linked with available spatially linked databases for soils, land use, and climate data in order to establish production capacity for the Northeast U.S. The production capacity sensitivity to climate change and land-use scenarios will also be evaluated.
The overall approach is to address production, delivery, and consumption aspects related to improving regional food production systems. This portion of the research project focuses on the potential production aspects. The biophysical capacity of the region to produce food can be empirically determined as a function of soil suitability, land use, climate characteristics, crop yield and resource requirements. Spatially linked databases for soils availability, land use patterns, and climate will be assembled using geographic information systems on a county-by-county level throughout the Northeast. The research will link this database with process level ARS crop models (including potato, corn and/or wheat) that simulate yield and resource requirements in response to biophysical constraints. The productivity estimates will be overlaid onto a geographic map of the region. The resulting database and modeling tools will be used to assess future production capacity, based on the changes in specific factors or drivers which can impact production, distribution/processing, and consumption objectives in the overall proposal. Thus, a component of the research will also evaluate effects of climate change scenarios and land-use changes on spatial productivity estimates.