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ARS Home » Southeast Area » Fort Pierce, Florida » U.S. Horticultural Research Laboratory » Subtropical Plant Pathology Research » Research » Research Project #421253

Research Project: EARLY DETECTION STOCHASTIC MODELING AND THE DESIGN OF SURVEY METHODOLOGIES AND RESOURCE ESTIMATORS FOR HIGH-RISK PATHOGENS

Location: Subtropical Plant Pathology Research

Project Number: 6034-22000-039-16-N
Project Type: Non-Funded Cooperative Agreement

Start Date: Aug 1, 2011
End Date: Jan 1, 2014

Objective:
1. Develop a survey methodology that will maximize the probability to detect high-risk pathogens of agricultural significance at an early phase. 2. Developed a tool to calculate resources required and optimize the use of sampling resources. 3. Deliver user friendly Excel-spreadsheet based module that can be used by regulatory agencies.

Approach:
Data sets to parameterize the travel risk model will be collected at ports of entry from international travelers and compiled for model use. An existing preliminary model will be enhanced by the use of zip codes and by extensive consideration of epidemiological characteristics used to parameterize risk. Using dynamically-linked spreadsheets a resources estimator will be developed that calculates necessary personnel (surveyors, supervisors, support staff, etc), plus fiscal and infrastructure costs (vehicles, equipment, and miscellaneous requirements) needed to accomplish the surveys and goals.