Location: Arthropod-borne Animal Diseases Research2011 Annual Report
1a. Objectives (from AD-416)
Develop a stochastic version of the Rift Valley Fever model. The model will be used to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce mortality and morbidity during Rift Valley Fever epidemics.
1b. Approach (from AD-416)
A stochastic Rift Valley Fever model will be developed that incorporates humans, livestock, and mosquito species. The model will consider mosquito and cattle population fluctuations based on movement and environmental factors. After establishing and validating the model, mitigation strategies will be evaluated for feasibility.
3. Progress Report
Kansas State and ABADRU researchers designed a stochastic network-based model of Rift Valley fever. It examines human, livestock and mosquito populations to estimate disease spread and number of infections based on mathematical models that account for environmental and biological variation. The model is built upon a large directed, asymmetric network with 3,621 nodes in the Panhandle area of Texas which has a similar climate to South Africa. Humans, cattle, and Aedes and Culex mosquito populations are modeled separately and their interactions recorded. Since mosquitoes and cattle have various movement properties, each has a separate network with probabilities determining the contacts between networks. Various spatial effects and climate scenarios are assessed to determine the important factors affecting RVFV spread. ADODR is directly involved in performance of the research and also monitors activities through site visits, meeting at conferences, email and phone calls.