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Research Project: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AGMIP)

Location: Office of International Research Programs

2012 Annual Report

1a. Objectives (from AD-416):
Improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries.

1b. Approach (from AD-416):
The three-year project will provide the necessary integrated, transdisciplinary framework to assess climate impacts on the agricultural sector and will build capacity for continuing agricultural assessment and management in developing countries under changing climate conditions. AgMIP implementation will be led by Drs. Jerry Hatfield (USDA-ARS), Cynthia Rosenzweig (Columbia University/NASA GISS), Jim Jones (University of Florida). Research activities, implemented through an agreement with Columbia University, will be led through the coordination of four project teams: 1) Crop Modeling (led by Drs. Ken Boote, University of Florida; and Peter Thorburn, CSIRO, Australia) 2) Economics (led by Drs. John Antle, Oregon State University; and Gerald Nelson, IFPRI) 3) Climate Scenarios (led by Dr. Alex Ruane, Columbia University/NASA GISS) 4) Information Technologies (led by Drs. Cheryl Porter, University of Florida; and Sander Janssen, Wageningen Univeristy, Netherlands). Each project team will have U.S. and international co-leads, and coordinates AgMIP participation from both developed and developing country research institutions to ensure that project activities are conducted with consistent protocols. USDA-ARS scientists are playing key roles in the development and conduct of research as members of each of the project teams. The teams will hold regular teleconferences to facilitate communication among participants and provide a mechanism for regular updates and oversight, enabling the teams to identify and address any problems that may occur. The teams will also help to organize and participate in annual AgMIP meetings. Visits to AgMIP participating field sites will also be conducted by one or more team members.

3. Progress Report:
This project this implemented through an agreement with Columbia University (3625-11610-001-15G). This effort is being led by USDA-ARS, University of Florida, and Columbia University with participation from scientists from 40 different countries representing a range of crops, climate change, and economics. Partnerships have been developed with Oregon State University, Wageningen University, IFPRI, and CSIRO to further develop the AgMIP goals and individuals from these goals serve in various roles as team leaders. There have been a number of regional workshops conducted in different areas: South America, SubSaharan Africa, India, Europe, and North America. These regional workshops have developed an approach to integrate crop, climate, and economic data toward identifying adaptation strategies to cropping systems through an innovative information technology structure. One of the AgMIP objectives is to intercompare and improve crop models and efforts are underway to intercompare wheat and corn models with expansion to rice, sugarcane, millet, peanut, soybean, and sorghum. As part of the improvement effort, a linkage was developed between experimental observations on carbon dioxide, water, and temperature impacts on crop growth and yield and the crop modeling community with the goal of developing a better understanding to the carbon dioxide, water, and temperature interactions and how these effects are incorporated into crop models. Funding received from DFID in the United Kingdom was used to begin the training and intercomparison of crop models for developing countries in Africa and South Asia and a solicitation was made for projects in these areas with five projects funded in each region. Establishment of these projects is being conducted through workshops to define and review the goals. Projects in SubSaharan Africa were developed in September 2012 in Ghana and the South Asian projects will convene in November. Partnerships with other groups with similar goals have been developed and the Steering Committee has suggested that an alliance be developed to foster a more effective framework for information exchange. The goal of this alliance would be to develop global efforts to increase food security through more effective linkages with ongoing projects around the world. Partners for these ongoing efforts include CCAFS, Global Futures, SERVIR, MACSUR, IPCC, and ISI-MIP. These groups will be meeting together as part of the 3rd Global Meeting in Rome during October 2012.

4. Accomplishments