Farm Simulation: a tool for evaluating the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation of dairy production to climate change

Authors: Rotz, Clarence - Al; Skinner, Robert; STONER, ANNE - Texas Tech University; HAYHOE, KATHARINE - Texas Tech University

Submitted to: Symposium Proceedings
Publication Type: Proceedings
Publication Acceptance Date: 6/1/2015
Publication Date: 7/29/2015
Citation: Rotz, C.A., Skinner, R.H., Stoner, A.M., Hayhoe, K. 2015. Farm Simulation: a tool for evaluating the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation of dairy production to climate change. Proceedings Dairy Environmental Systems and Climate Adaptation Conf., July 29-31, Cornell University., Ithaca, NY. p 53-60. Available: http://www.manuremanagement.cornell/edu/Pages/Animal_Ag_Climate/Conference_Proceedings.pdf

Interpretive Summary: An interpretive summary is not required.

Technical Abstract: Farms both produce greenhouse gas emissions that drive human-induced climate change and are impacted by that climate change. Whole farm and global climate models provide useful tools for studying the benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation and the adaptation of farms to changing climate. The Integrated Farm System Model was used to simulate a representative dairy farm in northern New York to evaluate environmental and economic impacts of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Rapid incorporation of manure following field application along with the use of liquid-solid separation of the manure reduced ammonia emission from the farm by 26%, reduced the carbon footprint of the milk produced 7%, and increased farm profit by $23 per cow. Use of an enclosed manure storage nearly eliminated ammonia emission during storage but increased nitrogen leaching loss following field application. Methane emission from the storage was eliminated by burning any gas produced, which reduced the carbon footprint by 21%, but the investment in the enclosed storage reduced profit by $34 per cow. Use of an anaerobic digester for energy production and use on the farm increased ammonia emissions during storage and following field application, reduced the energy footprint by 30%, and reduced the carbon footprint 21%. Savings in energy costs offset the costs of owning and maintaining the digester and associated equipment giving a net return similar to that obtained with the open storage without digestion. Projected climate change affects many aspects of dairy production including crop growing season length, crop growth processes, harvest timing and losses, cattle performance, nutrient emissions and losses, and ultimately farm profitability. In this northeastern location, average annual temperature was predicted to increase by about 4 oF by midcentury and as much as 8.6 oF by late century with about a 1% increase in annual precipitation. The change in climate along with the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration increased simulated forage production for most future climate scenarios. Grain crop yields normally decreased due to warmer temperatures at critical stages of phenological development. For most climate scenarios, total feed production on the farm was maintained or increased. Warmer temperatures increased volatile loss of ammonia by 21 to 30%, and changes in precipitation patterns increased nutrient runoff losses up to 57%. Farm profitability increased by up to $140/cow per year for a mid century scenario, but by the late-century period, annual farm profit was similar to the current.