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ARS Home » Southeast Area » Tifton, Georgia » Southeast Watershed Research » Research » Publications at this Location » Publication #310329
Title: Projected climate change for the coastal plain region of Georgia, USA

Author
item Bosch, David - Dave
item Garbrecht, Jurgen
item Busteed, Phillip

Submitted to: Proceedings of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers International (ASABE)
Publication Type: Proceedings
Publication Acceptance Date: 2/19/2015
Publication Date: 5/3/2015
Citation: Bosch, D.D., Garbrecht, J.D., Busteed, P.R. 2015. Projected climate change for the coastal plain region of Georgia, USA. Proceedings of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers International (ASABE), May 3-5, 2015, Chicago, Ill .

Interpretive Summary:

Technical Abstract: Climatic patterns for the Coastal Plain region of Georgia, USA, centered on Tifton, Georgia (31 28 30N, 83 31 54W) were examined for long term patterns in precipitation and air temperature. Climate projections based upon output from seven Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and three future Green House Gas (GHG) emission scenarios, along with data collected by the Southeast Watershed Research Laboratory were used to examine trends in precipitation and air temperature. The three GHG emissions examined included “high”, “middle”, and “low” CO2 abundance. Based upon the projections, annual precipitation for the region is not expected to change much over the 21st century for the GHG emission scenarios studied. Most trends in projected monthly precipitation were not statistically significant. However, a statistically significant 90-year (2011-2100) wet trend in projected seasonal precipitation was identified for the months of June through December for all three emission scenarios. Annual air temperature over the region is expected to increase for the three emission scenarios. Average predicted trends of annual air temperature over the 2011-2100 time period were 0.15, 0.32 and 0.41 [oC/decade] for the low, middle, and high emission scenarios, respectively. All trends of projected monthly temperature were statistically significant. Projected air temperature increases were higher during warm months (May through October) than during the cool months of the year. Overall, climate change in south-central Georgia over the 21st century is anticipated to be primarily in the form of a rise in air temperature for all calendar months with a hint of a slight increase in total annual precipitation mostly due to an increase in precipitation for June through December.