ARS | Publication request: An aggregated crop yield index to explore regional potential production capacity

Submitted to: Meeting Abstract
Publication Type: Abstract Only
Publication Acceptance Date: December 4, 2012
Publication Date: N/A

Technical Abstract: Food security is a major concern for heavily populated, urban regions such as the northeast U.S. Quantifying the potential production capacity of a region in a way that geospatially represents multiple food types would go a long way towards assisting policy planners in optimizing crop production based on the natural resources available, implementing best farm management practices, and mitigating the possible effects of uncertainties such as climate change and land use change. A yield index (YI) was developed based on the aggregation of simulation results from three process-based crop models: SPUDSIM (potato), MAIZSIM (corn), and CERES-Wheat (wheat). The crop models simulated yield and resource requirements at field-scale modeling units by combining geospatial input data with a geographic information system (ArcGIS) and scripting interface (Python). The YI was evaluated at a county level over the U.S. eastern seaboard spanning from Virginia to Maine to establish a baseline regional production capacity assuming current weather, soil, land use, and management factors. The YI will be utilized to analyze the potential production capacity resulting from various possible scenarios such as future climate change and land use change.