ARS | Publication request: A Spatially Explicit Degree-day Model of Rift Valley Fever Transmission Risk in the Continental United States

Submitted to: Geojournal
Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
Publication Acceptance Date: January 20, 2010
Publication Date: February 5, 2010
Citation: Konrad, S.K., Miller, S.N., Reeves, W.K. 2010. A spatially Explicit Degree-day Model of Rift Valley Fever Transmission Risk in the Continental United States. Geojournal: 10.1007/s10708-010-9338-x

Interpretive Summary: A degree-day model was used to assess the risk of an African virus (Rift Valley Fever) transmission within California, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, and Texas. Each state was evaluated on a 6.2 mile grid using the average of historical daily temperature extremes from 1994-2003. The highest levels of virus transmission risk occur in California and Texas. Some parts of the states were at risk for 8 months. Northern Minnesota, central New York, and most of coastal and high-elevation California are not subject to risk. Risk of economic impact to the livestock industry is greatest in California, Texas, and Nebraska. A standard global climate model was used to assess future risk in Nebraska, and showed an increase of transmission risk days from approximately three to four months per year.

Technical Abstract: A degree-day model was used to assess the risk of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) transmission within five target states in the continental United States: California, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, and Texas. Each state was evaluated on a 10-km grid using the average of historical daily temperature extremes from 1994-2003. The highest levels of transmission risk occur in California and Texas, with parts of these states at risk of RVF transmission for up to eight months. Northern Minnesota, central New York, and most of coastal and high-elevation California are not subject to risk. Risk of economic impact to the livestock industry is greatest in California, Texas, and Nebraska. A standard global climate model was used to assess future risk in Nebraska, and showed an increase of transmission risk days from approximately three to four months per year.